Apr 222009

Market Cycles Kept Secret From Losing Traders and Investors.

Posted by Barry Burns in Cycles, Day Trading, Forex, Futures, Investing, Momentum, Stocks, Swing Trading, Trends tags: Cycles, Day Trading, Forex, Futures, Investing, market cycles, Trends

Welcome back. Enjoy this latest article and then scroll down and please leave your comments/reactions at the bottom of this post. Thanks for visiting again!



A stock, Forex or futures chart only has 2 dimensions. Most traders and investors focus only only one: price. But along the bottom of every chart is another dimension: TIME. That axis is fully 50% of any chart’s equation and it measures market cycles.

Stock market cycles (as well as those of Forex, commodities, futures or any other market) are absolutely critical for those trading the markets because they provide the critical element of TIMING when to enter a trade.

A floor trader at the CME once told me that retailers (his word for amateur traders) are usually right, but at the wrong time.

W.D. Gann proposed that time was more important than price.

And yet as I talk to traders around the world, very few of them know anything about market cycles.

One of the most common laments I hear from amateur traders is that they took a position, quickly got stopped out, and then the market turned right around and went soaring in the direction of their original trade!

This happens because they don’t know how to TIME their trade.

When most people think of cycles, they think of up and down oscillations. And that is certainly one type of cycle. Even in a trend, the market moves up and down during its larger directional move.

However there are other types of cycles as well:

  • Contraction/expansion (cycles in volatility).
  • Order/chaos (cycles between high probability setups and low probability setups).
  • Fast/slow (cycles in how fast the market moves).
  • Coupling/uncoupling of sectors, industries and various market pairings.
  • Seasonal and calendar cycles that tend to occur around the same time of year.

… and there are probably many more.

Learning about these various types of cycles can give you a tremendous edge in trading because most traders don’t give them any attention. It can be your advantage that may turn you from an average day trader, swing trader or investor, into a profitable one.

The topic of cycles is a big one, so I decided to simply begin with this introductory article and then let you decide where we go from here.

Are you interested in learning more about these cycles? If so, put your requests (specifically which type of cycles you’d like to learn more about) in the comments section below and I’ll be happy to create blog posts/free videos in the future that cover those areas of most interest to you (majority wins!).

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This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009 at 10:51 pm and is filed under Cycles, Day Trading, Forex, Futures, Investing, Momentum, Stocks, Swing Trading, Trends. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

72 Responses to “Market Cycles Kept Secret From Losing Traders and Investors.”

  1. Market Cycles Kept Secret From Losing Traders and Investors. Says:

    April 22nd, 2009 at 11:30 pm

    [...] News Sources wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptA stock, forex or futures chart only has 2 dimensions. Most traders and investors focus only only one: price. But along the bottom of every chart is another dimension: TIME. That axis is fully 50% of any chart’s equation and it measures market cycles. Stock market cycles (as well as those of forex, commodities, futures or any other market) are absolutely critical for those trading the markets because they provide the critical element of TIMING when to enter a trade. A floor trader at the CME [...]

  2. Daniel Says:

    April 22nd, 2009 at 11:56 pm

    Hi Barry,
    I would be interested in learning more about cycle type 2 and 3 according to your list.
    Looking forward to the follow-up articles.
    Regards,
    Daniel
    Australia

  3. AT Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 12:10 am

    Yup, a video or report would be GREAT!! But why not cover ALL cycles, to the degree of their importance? More coverage for the more important ones, less for the more obscure ones.

  4. DAVID MONSKY Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 12:37 am

    I’d like to see daytrading cycles,but a close 2nd to that would be the “3-day cycle” which I have observed in many tradable stocks & E-Mini Stk. Insices

  5. Dvir Gueta Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 12:39 am

    I vote for contraction / expansion cycles..

  6. Nix Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 12:42 am

    Thanks, Barry. It’s very useful.
    I would love to learn more of the Order/Chaos and Contraction and expansion cycles.

  7. Martins Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 1:21 am

    Hello Barry,

    Thank you for your educative articles.Like you rightly said cycles are important to trading but i honestly have not been gving attention to it.Although i willlike to know how the various cycle works but i will like you to explain more on Contraction/expansion (cycles in volatility).

    Thanks

    Martins

  8. George Hann Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 1:41 am

    I am interested in learning about all of the market cycles you have mentioned please.

  9. sylvester Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 1:42 am

    Pls send me information on all the cycles as I am really interested in knowing more:

    up and down oscillations
    Contraction/expansion (cycles in volatility).
    Order/chaos (cycles between high probability setups and low probability setups).
    Fast/slow (cycles in how fast the market moves).
    Coupling/uncoupling of sectors, industries and various market pairings.
    Seasonal and calendar cycles that tend to occur around the same time of year

  10. Rick Reynolds Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 2:01 am

    good morning Barry, I nmean Doctor Barry, I sent you an e-mail about 2 or 3 months ago asking if you use cycles and you said you really did not pay too much attention to them. I draw a verticle line every half hour up to 11:00am on my 699 tick chart and it reminds me of major reversal times and has helped me very much. So I would be very interested in a video.
    Thanks in advance for all you do,
    Rick

  11. Bill Heid Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 2:01 am

    Barry,

    No doubt about it – the order/chaos (or high/low probability) cycle is the most important! Keep up the fantastic posts! They are very meaningful and they are adding focus and direction to my trading.

  12. Paulo Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 2:10 am

    Very interesting. If you could expand on contractio/expansion and order/chaos cycles, that would be great!

    Thanks

  13. Michel Pelletier Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 2:29 am

    Would like to hear more details regarding the different cycles in the Forex market

    Thank you

    Michel

  14. Novice Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 2:35 am

    Interesting topic. Personally I think you need to think about all the these cycles in the context of each other as they tend to be interconnected. Speed cycles have a lot to do with volatility cycles which have a lot to do whether the market is in a random phase or a rare non-random phase which in turn leads to decoupling.

    Great idea though. Will certainly help a lot of people to think more about this (including me).

  15. Joe Gnandt Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 2:36 am

    Seasonality

  16. Larry Theaker Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 2:43 am

    Order/chaos (cycles between high probability setups and low probability setups

  17. Tuan Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 3:34 am

    Barry,
    I would like to learn more about
    Coupling/uncoupling of sectors

  18. Ian Barker Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 3:38 am

    Hi Barry
    I’m enjoying your videos and learning a lot, i’d like to learn more about all cycles if possible’ thank you very much’ bye for now.

    Ian

  19. ken Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 4:10 am

    would like to see more about the order/chaos & slow/fast cycles explained/illustrated…

  20. Mark Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 4:46 am

    This is a aspect of trading (Like higher math), that takes a bit of time to wrap your head around. And I’d like to give my reasons why I chose the wave pattern that I did.

    Contraction/expansion (cycles in volatility). This I feel can be expressed with Bollinger Bands.

    Fast/slow (cycles in how fast the market moves).
    Here, Stochastics or some other oscillator will do just fine.

    Coupling/uncoupling of sectors, industries and various market pairings. This is a good choice number two. I may eat my words here as I express my ignorance of this dicipline here but this strikes me as more of a fundamental aspect to market analysis rather than a technical one.

    Seasonal and calendar cycles that tend to occur around the same time of year. Again, I feel that this is more of a fundamental interpretation of the markets. If however, you are trading the commodities markets. You could well live and die with this information. I trade forex. And I am sure that there are more gifted individuals out there than I who could show me how this information “is” critical to my forex trade decisions. But I’ll admit that at this point in time, “I don’t get it.”

    So, that leaves Order/chaos (cycles between high probability setups and low probability setups). Now, this to me is exactly what a “technical trader” should be looking for to determine his/her market entry and exit points. So this is what I’d like to see discussed in more detail. However, if at some time in the future you would like to fly off on a tangent and flesh out the other aspects of timing, I am all ears!

    I am a student of yours Mr. Burns. And your course of a spectacular value. Bue I do admit that the most difficult part of your presentation to understand is your discussion of cycles. It seems so simple to understand. But there seems to be a bit of a disconnect between understanding and doing. Still trying though. Thanks again for all of your hard work teaching us newbies the ropes. You must be a swing or position trader as I don’t see how you would find the time to do all that you do for us trading any other method.

  21. Leo Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 4:50 am

    ◦Contraction/expansion (cycles in volatility).

  22. Henry Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 4:52 am

    I am intrigued re “Order/chaos cycles”. How can one measure certainty / uncertainty other then a general feeling? Please discuss this further.

  23. Larry Hoover Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 5:02 am

    Barry,

    Really enjoy your no cost training help. Will be enrolling in your advanced courses soon.

    Any seasonality (cycles) that a 15 minute time frame currencies day trader can and should tap into???

    Also when I look at three time frames for a give currencies trade pair what weight should I give to each of the three? Which is more important and by how much? Can and should I put a weighting number on each?

    Thanks! Larry

  24. Pin Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 5:27 am

    Hi Dr Burns
    yes interested to learn more.
    no cycles in particular. maybe from the more common ones to the least common.
    thanks

  25. Mark Lonow Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 5:36 am

    I would love to learn more about the Order/Chaos Cycles. As an adjunct to that Contraction/Expansion would also be helpful.
    Mark Lonow
    mlon@aol.com

  26. Dan Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 5:51 am

    I took your courses and it changed my way of looking at the markets. I have since continued my education and recently come accross a system of using cycles in trading. This has proven to be a very powerful weapon in my arsenal.

    I would like to learn more about cycles.

  27. Tim Penhale Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 6:02 am

    Hi Barry, I’m interested in volatility and probability cycles and how they tie in with options, thanks for the articles etc. Kind regards, Tim

  28. Eric Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 6:11 am

    Dr. Burn
    Yes, I would like to learn all the market cycle. Really appreciated. Thanks

    Eric

  29. amin Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 6:16 am

    Contraction/expansion (cycles in volatility).
    Order/chaos (cycles between high probability setups and low probability setups).
    Fast/slow (cycles in how fast the market moves

  30. Jim Smith Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 6:58 am

    Hi Barry,
    I presume that most of the cycles you mentioned above are longer term. I would be interested in any cycles that would apply to daytrading or 3-5 day swing trading being more of a short termer myself.
    thanks.

  31. Willie Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 7:03 am

    Dr. Burns,

    I would be most interested in the cycle patterns of the following:

    Contraction/expansion (cycles in volatility)
    Fast/slow (cycles in how fast the market moves)
    Seasonal and calendar cycles that tend to occur around the same time of year.

    These three interest me the most. Please if you have the bandwidth, could you expound upon these.

    Sincerely,

    Willie P.

  32. Robert A. Smith Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 7:05 am

    I would like to learn about…
    “Seasonal and calendar cycles that tend to occur around the same time of year”.

  33. Stan Ciapciak Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 7:46 am

    I would like to learn more about ORDER/CHAOS and probability setups.

    Thanks, Stan

  34. John B. Milton Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 8:35 am

    Hello DR. Barry,

    I’m interested in learning the timing of cycles as they would apply to the S&P.

    Thanks for all your help thus far.

    John

  35. Ted Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 8:41 am

    All of the cycles sound interesting. I know a little about the seasonal/calendar cycles and I’d like to hear your thoughts to confirm what I think I know!

  36. BRUCE WATKINS Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 11:30 am

    I WOULD LIKE TO LEARN ABOUT ALL OF THE CYCLE YOU MENTION.. DR. BURNS THANKS FOR YOUR CONTINUED SUPPORT AND HELP IN MY DEVELOPMENT OF BECOMING A TRADER.

  37. Alta Craig Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 1:34 pm

    well, shoot, Barry, I’d like to understand them ALL better! as one of your students, I’m eager to learn everything I can about how to become a better trader. Thanks!

  38. Al B. Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 3:10 pm

    Yes, I would like to learn more about sector, industries and various market pairings please.

    Thank you Barry!

  39. john Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 5:09 pm

    barry– i would like the cycles between market open and market close for day trading stocks. today for example, the market started up, then down, sold off around 2:40, then ran up to the days high the last 30 minutes. it’s been like this for 3-4 days and is frustrating b/c between open and close the basket of stocks i watch remain flat as a doormat.

  40. Rod Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 6:09 pm

    Hi,great subject and I’d love if you coud expand on Order/chaos (cycles between high probability setups and low probability setups)and
    Coupling/uncoupling of sectors, industries and various market pairings.

    Thank you.

  41. Colin Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 6:18 pm

    Volatility cycles please.

  42. Stephen M Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 6:23 pm

    Barry, This a very interesting area an I am glad that you are opening it up for your blog followers. I would be very interested in learning more about seasonal cycles and coupling and uncoupling of markets. Thanks.

  43. hrant Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 6:59 pm

    I am intrested to know more about order/chaos cycles please.

  44. Lawanda Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 7:23 pm

    HI BARRY IT SEEMS TO ME THAT PAYING MORE ATTENTION TO CYCLES MAKES SENSE. I TRADE THE MARKET IN TIME CYCLES USUALLY BETWEEN 9-10:30 AND 1:00-2:00PM. I WOULD LOVE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THESE CYCLES AND HOW IT WOULD HELP ME BECOME A BETTER TRADER. MY TRADING WEAKNESS IS LEARNING HOW TO BE CONSISTENTAND DISCPLINE I N MY TRADES. I’M LEARNING SO MUCH SO FAR FROM YOUR VIDEOS AND I PLAN ON BUYING YOUR COURSES. THANK YOU BARRY!

  45. Richard Says:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 10:04 pm

    Hi Barry, I would like to lean more about all the cycles that is mention by you. Please furnish me with more informtions. Thanking you inadvance. rgds Richard.

  46. Barry in Australia Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 1:31 am

    Barry

    As an Marketing MBA I am well aware that cycles are important. I see trading as a multivariate issue not mono or dual variate activity…

    For myself any further information will be gratefully received.

    Barry

  47. CHR Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 5:57 am

    Surely the most important one is contraction/expansion as this results in strong price movements.

  48. Liz Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 7:02 am

    Barry – I would like to learn about order/chaos and fast/slow cycles as my first two choices. But could you follow up with the others at a later time?

  49. Harry Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 1:31 pm

    Hi Barry , I see trading with cycles has more probability of winning trades. But I need to learn more on this topic. I would be very thankful if I could get material on this subject. I am closely following your videos.They are very very useful and giving the broad picture of market behavior.

    Thank You

  50. Mike Says:

    April 25th, 2009 at 2:17 pm

    Count me in,I like to learn anything about being a better trader.
    Cheers Mike

  51. Joe in Toronto Says:

    April 25th, 2009 at 6:12 pm

    Very intriguing topic. Would like to learn all cycles in priority of their importance. A video with accompanying text if necessary would be the best.

    I have just enrolled in your fundation course and newsletter, and found your service the most valuable among all the courses I have taken. Thanks a lot and all the best wishes for you

  52. steve b Says:

    April 25th, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    Order/chaos (High probability setups and low probability setups)

    All i’m really interested in is profiting by only trading when the odds are in my favour.

    steve b
    australia – land of the free

  53. Eve Says:

    April 26th, 2009 at 2:34 am

    Barry , I’d like to learn more about cycles. Particualrly th Elliot wave cylcles & it’s significance in trading.

  54. Steve Says:

    April 26th, 2009 at 11:06 am

    I would be interested in the relationship between volitility cycles and time cycles.

    It seems at some point it all comes back to supply and demand driving all market moves, cycles or not.

    Steve

  55. 138th Edition of the Festival of Stocks Says:

    April 27th, 2009 at 5:51 am

    [...] Market Cycles Kept Secret From Losing Traders and Investors. posted at Top Dog Trading. Learning how to trade stock market cycles can turn an amateur trader into a pro. [...]

  56. Katia Says:

    April 29th, 2009 at 12:50 pm

    Contraction/expansion (cycles in volatility).
    Order/chaos (cycles between high probability setups and low probability setups).
    Fast/slow (cycles in how fast the market moves).
    +Seasonals
    Thank you Dr. Barry Burns

  57. Bill Tessore Says:

    April 29th, 2009 at 12:58 pm

    Hi Barry,

    I knew about seasonal cycles (typically agriculture), and volatility, but these others are news (Greek) to me. More information on those would be good.

    I appreciate you,

    Bill Tessore
    BillTessore.com

  58. Ted H. Says:

    April 29th, 2009 at 10:09 pm

    Hi Barry,

    Hope all is well and trading is good.

    I cast my vote for cycles in volatility.

    Thanks.

    Ted.

  59. Cliff Says:

    April 30th, 2009 at 5:17 pm

    I would definitely like to hear more about those “stop sweeps”, when I get stopped-out only to see the price turn around and soar away.

    I also would like to hear more about contraction/expansion and order/chaos theory.

  60. Terry Says:

    May 2nd, 2009 at 12:47 am

    I would prefer the cycles contraction/expansion and order/chaos. Thank you

  61. Peter Newton Says:

    May 2nd, 2009 at 3:54 am

    Hello Barry,

    As you say, this sort of information is key to improving the risk reward odds. I would like your view on which you think are the most significant ones for better entry timing.

    Many Thanks
    Peter Newton

  62. Tony Says:

    May 2nd, 2009 at 5:09 am

    I would like to know more about cycles…I trade strictly the FX market…..I would like to know how the cycles work in seasonality, etc.

    I miss too many trade because of timing…..Either getting in too early or missing the trade..

  63. chalan Says:

    May 11th, 2009 at 5:15 pm

    Dr. Barry.

    WOW…. You just gave away 75% of the best kept secret of making $$$$$$$$ in the market in any direction.

    Where were you 10 years ago?

    cheers……..

  64. john mclaughlin Says:

    May 25th, 2009 at 7:00 pm

    I want to thank you so much for what you have taught me in just a short period of time. Stochastics was the first indicator that I learned about when I started trading. But I never learned how to use it correctly. Thank you for teaching me. When I was reading the tutorial on stochastics I had also plotted the 50 sma on my chart and was watching a trade set up at the same time in after hours trading. Price was retracing back to the 50 ma and it was a perfect set up. I had to trade it. I got out early and only made $100 instead of the $300 that the trade gave. The market was moving real slow so I exited. I am finaly feeling confident about trading.
    Thanks, John

  65. Adrian Ladd Says:

    May 25th, 2009 at 10:33 pm

    I would like to know more on the time cycles and how to incorperate in to my trading to my advantage.

    regards Adrian UK

  66. Larry Hoover Says:

    June 16th, 2009 at 10:34 am

    Dr. Barry,

    Me again. See 4/23/09. And YES I am a member now of your couses #1 and #2. Lots of great stuff and trying to digest it one bite at a time.

    Any possibility of having workbooks for students to test themselves regarding the material with the answers or solutions in the back or on the next page?

  67. Barry Burns Says:

    June 16th, 2009 at 7:15 pm

    Hi Larry,

    Great suggestion and that is something we plan on doing in the future.

    Barry

  68. DJ Says:

    June 23rd, 2009 at 5:51 pm

    i would love to hear/read about order/chaos

  69. Harvinder Berar Says:

    July 9th, 2009 at 2:28 am

    Hi Berry Burns,

    Thank you for your great information educative articles. Like you rightly said cycles are important to trading. Yes i would like to know how the various cycle works but i will like you to explain more on Contraction/expansion (cycles in volatility).

  70. jerome Says:

    July 12th, 2009 at 1:46 pm

    finallym great info. real sophistication.

  71. sandra742 Says:

    September 9th, 2009 at 6:46 am

    Hi! I was surfing and found your blog post… nice! I love your blog. :) Cheers! Sandra. R.

  72. earl Says:

    June 3rd, 2010 at 5:53 pm

    hi barry all cicles your

    instructiion is very helpful

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