Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1 video: This video (and article) will give you key insights on timing the market cycles right using various strategies, founded on solid economic fundamentals. This would elevate your trading performance to new heights.
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Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1
Today we’re going to talk about stock market cycles, FOREX cycles, anything that has to do with trading cycles, cycle indicators in the financial markets, and this is really important. This is going to give you a huge edge because what’s interesting is as I was doing some google searches in Youtube searches to see what else was out there on this topic. First of all, I found out that there are not many people doing searches for this. So then I thought, well maybe I shouldn’t do a video on it if people aren’t searching for. And then I thought, no, just the opposite. I definitely need to do a video on this because if there are very few people using this and I share it with my subscribers, then I can give you an edge because that’s kind of what an edge is.
Seeing things that other people don’t see, they’re not even looking for. And this is so important. So we’re focusing on stock market cycles today and what I mean by that is your timing in the market. Now, that appears in many different ways, but, first of all, again, just to emphasize the importance of this and how absolutely ridiculously critical this is. So think of it this way, a chart has two dimensions. It’s a two-dimensional object. There’s your price access and there’s your time access. Alright, so think of that. Now, if you are not using some sort of really great timing tool, what are you doing?
Stock market cycle analysis
You’re missing out on 50 percent of the information on the chart. Yes, trading is all about establishing probability scenarios that favor us, right? How can you establish a statistical probability scenario? If you’re ignoring 50 percent of the information on the chart, I think you know the answer to that. You are doomed. That alone means that you will be a failed trader. Now, how this manifests itself in a lot of people’s actual trading experience as they’ll say things like “I keep getting in and then I get stopped out and then after it gets stopped out at the market, goes back in the original direction of my trade and I keep getting stepped on all the time”. One of my friends who is a floor trader actually was one of my mentors for quite a while in Chicago and he said, Barry, you know what?
Retailers are often right, but at the wrong time, and that’s what he meant in the experience that some of you are having; timing at the wrong time. Time is everything. And especially in today’s markets. You can’t be as sloppy as you could back in the olden days when I started trading. No, with high-frequency trading, Algo trading, the advent of decimalization, lowering of commissions, the commoditization of direct access, all this kind of stuff means that markets don’t trend as much as they used to. They’re choppier, they’re noisier, so you have to be more accurate, and the way you do that is by learning how to time your entries. Now, as I just showed you, there are two dimensions on the chart, but WD Gann, the famous trader, he said they’re not even equal.
Stock market cycle theory
Of the two, time is actually more important than price and that very few people even use this in their trading in any way, shape or form. So, I’m going to do a little series here on how to do this with various types of stock market cycles. When you’re talking about cycles in the market, that’s what we’re talking about is timing. So today, I’m going to give you a quick overview and then we’ll do some specific videos in the future. Actually, you know what, we’ll do a little bit on that first one.
So there’s seasonal or calendar cycles and then there are volatility cycles, we’ll do that in a future video. We’ll cover the first one today and then order/chaos cycles. Now, that one, that’s the one that I have never heard anybody else talk about except me, although I’m sure if somebody has. Coupling and uncoupling cycles, that’s actually one of the professional traders do a lot. And the uptown cycles, that means timing your entries with the highs and the lows, the swing high swing lows. I actually have a great indicator for it by the way which I give away for free, so that one is where you get very precise into exactly where you enter to help you to prevent being stopped out, whether it’s long or short.
Stock market cycles forecast
If you’re interested in the indicator, I’m happy to share with you along with this tutorial. Just send me an email at email@example.com. I won’t be covering that in this video because it takes longer than our 10 minutes allotted for these youtube videos, but happy to share it with you for free. Today, what I want to focus on is this one, the seasonal or calendar cycles. What we’re talking about here is the time of year basically, and this is most famously used with the agricultural markets where they say you farm and you sow your seed in the spring. The crops grow over the summer and then you reap your harvest in the fall. So, if you’re going to trade soft commodities such as corn or wheat, then it would make sense to go ahead and buy those commodities in the spring.
And then when they sell the commodity in the fall, then you know the 20 sale price goes up and you’re olden, right? It’s not quite that easy. We’ll talk about that in a moment. But that is a cycle, the agricultural cycle. And then another one is the retail sector. So as I’m recording this, we’re just about a week before Christmas. Actually, it’s exactly a week before Christmas now, but I look at the calendar and this is a time when retail markets do well, right? There are some businesses, in fact, that make all their money during the holidays in December or they pushed it even into November now to keep extending it. But the bottom line is these couple of months is the time when some businesses actually make all their profits and others to make the majority of their profits.
Stock cycles forecast
So people who are watching the retail stocks and sectors, things like that, they are watching this time of year. A third one is travel. So again, timing is very important for that. Most people do. They’re traveling during the summer or during spring break or during certain holidays. Again, maybe during Christmas, Kwanzaa, Hanukkah time when people are available to go visit family and friends. And so if you’re going to invest in airlines or hotels, things like that, then this would be a time that you’d be looking at those types of markets and you could do some swing trades around that timing. Now, here’s the problem. So you get the idea and there are many other cycles that are associated with the calendar year. But here’s the problem. They’re not always consistent, so you can’t just trade a calendar, you have to learn to read the charts.
And the reason for that is, let’s take the agricultural sector. Let’s say that a farmer, he sows in the spring and then a disaster happens. When I lived in Florida, we’d see this a lot with orange juice. The weather would drop and the oranges would die. And that really had a major dramatic effect on the orange juice commodity market. So prices would go up because why? There wasn’t the same kind of supply that they had expected, and now if you wanted an orange juice, you’re going to have to pay a lot more for it. The price went up. So that’s good, right? No, because some farmers lost all their crops and made no money.
Predicting stock market using cycle analysis
They invested all that money into farming, into the machinery, into raising the crops of whatever it was, wheat, corn. And now they got nothing back. So they are deeply in debt. So, speculators came along and said, hey, tell you what we’ll do, we’ll give you kind of an insurance policy, we’ll buy your crops in the spring before they’re even grown, let alone harvested and we will give you a price now, but we want a discount. But, basically, you’re guaranteed this price. And so they’re betting on the future and they’re mitigating the risk for the farmer. So the farmer gives up a percentage of what they would normally make, but they’ve got insurance, any type of insurance, so to say. So a lot of farmers said, cool, that’s fantastic. I would rather have the guaranteed price.
I can’t weather, pun fully intended, by the way, the risk of a horrible weather even if it just happens to me once every five years and once in ten years, it is so devastating that I’d rather smooth out my equity curve. That’s the thing, agricultural markets, you can’t read the calendar because what will happen? The retail sector is actually a better one because weather events are very difficult, in fact, impossible to predict. Now, in the retail sector, we can start watching for some leading indicators because it’s more driven by the economy. How are people doing, are they making lots of money and that sort of thing. So if people are feeling that they’re prosperous this year, they’re going to spend more money on presents. And if they’re not, then they’re not.
So people can start looking at these economic indicators ahead of time and that again is the deal. So with traders, speculators, we were trading these times of year but we’re not waiting to buy in the spring. Traders often trade the retail market starting in like August because by the time everything’s known, the deal is done, the trade is over. So it’s like the saying “buy the rumor and sell the news”. You’ve got confirmation, but there’s no opportunity for a trade. Therefore, you’ve got to be able to read a calendar and use that for some timing and you do what Dow theory calls discounting the market, which basically means to trade in advance before all the information is known and that’s why it’s called speculation.
Just say, but isn’t that risky? Yes, that’s why we call it speculation. The last thing I want to say is that using these types of cycles affect any type of cycles, is just one energy in the market. Money going in, money going out, the buying, the selling, the supply, the demand. So you don’t trade cycles alone, not even the calendar in a chart. You still need other things. But this is one extra thing that you can add to your trading in professionals. Definitely, do this. So if you liked this video on stock market cycles, please understand that it’s free, but not spiritually. Kind of a weird thing to say, but what I mean by that is that if you did get value from it, please pay it forward, just pay it forward.
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I call it the rubber band trade. I get people emailing me all the time telling me that they’re making money with this. And I want to give you value ahead of time and real value, not just general teaching but also stuff you can make money with and that’s what this rubber band trade is. It’s a simple trade and I can teach it to you in about 26 minutes. Get it absolutely free by clicking on the image in the top right corner of the video or in the description below the video. And if you’re not watching this on youtube, there’s probably a link below or an opt-in form on the side. Once you do one of those things, I will personally email the video to you with the rubber band trade strategy.
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BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.
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