Its hard to assess Trump’s inaugural address without noting its total gracelessness toward rivals, toward the 54% of Americans who voted against him, toward allies and trading partners and its doubling down on precisely the themes Wall Street ignored in the month-long, 6% stock rally that followed his election. Bank of Americas report saying Trump’s tax and infrastructure plans could boost growth in late 2017 and 2018 conceded the effects could be undone if Trump imposed even small tariffs on Mexican and Chinese goods, a fraction of what he has talked about.
Key Takeaways:
- It’s hard to assess Trump’s inaugural address without noting its total gracelessness — toward rivals, toward the 54% of Americans who voted against him, toward allies and trading partners — and its doubling down on precisely the themes Wall Street ignored in the month-long, 6% stock rally that followed his election.
- Wall Street’s predictions that Trump’s fiscal policies will goose the economy have been based on the idea that he isn’t serious about restricting trade, which will hurt exports at least as much as it curtails imports — but he just made clear that he is serious about trade, as well as about curtailing U.S. growth by cracking down on immigration in yet-unspecified ways.
- Bank of America’s report saying Trump’s tax and infrastructure plans could boost growth in late 2017 and 2018 conceded the effects could be undone if Trump imposed even small tariffs on Mexican and Chinese goods, a fraction of what he has talked about.
“Here’s the problem I’ve had all along with the Street’s post-election scramble to revise its previously bearish view of the new president: It simply airbrushed the parts of Trump’s program that didn’t fit the rally.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/donald-trump-warren-buffett-and-the-stock-market-2017-01-21
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