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Elliott Wave Theory Analysis – the New Rules! Video Revelation

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Elliott-Wave-Theory-Analysis
Elliott-Wave-Theory-Analysis

Welcome to this video on Elliott Wave Theory analysis versus objective trend trading indicators. I traded Elliott Wave rules for a while a couple of years so I’m definitely not here to trash the Elliott Wave principle.

My opinion on it is that it started out with the observation on how markets tend to move seeing repetitive cycles of three impulse moves in or five impulse moves and then three corrective waves. Then using it as an indicator of future price predictions.

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ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY ANALYSIS

The market is a wild animal is like a tiger. It’s not like a purse puppy that you can tame. So the markets are going to do what they’re going to do and they don’t always follow the same patterns as the rules in Elliott Wave theory analysis.

Therefore the way that I count waves is very mathematical. Certainly there’s been people who have attempted to create objective measurements for Elliott Wave charts and I’ve seen them but still the way that I do this is the way that I prefer it. After experiencing many different types of approaches so here it is in basic number one when we define trend.

ELLIOTT WAVE RULES

For example you could have a higher high and higher low and some people define this is a trend that is not a trend that is not a trend. That is simply a complex retrace in an overall downtrend in the extended general direction of this market would be down in this case before the trend is down. So we need a time when we’re going to use a trend trading indicator. We need something that measures the long term move of the market and there is many good choices.

ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLES

I just use a moving average the 50 period simple moving average, which is different than how Elliott Wave theory basics are calculated. It fits the definition of the term trend. It’s also a very commonly used moving average perhaps the most commonly moving average that there is and therefore there’s a self-fulfilling prophecy to it based on mass psychology.

This is similar to what’s taught in Elliott Wave theory books. We’ll get our little ABC patterns here. As the market puts in cycles now this down here is my cycle indicator. When you’re measuring cycles there’s two different things there’s cycles and there’s waves. So this indicator measures cycles but you have to measure cycles before you can measure waves.

ELLIOTT WAVE CHARTS

The other way the wave 3 has a lower low than wave one. And since this does not therefore it is a cycle a wave low. That’s the difference between this and Elliott Wave theory analysis. So every wave is a cycle but not every cycle is a wave. So waves define counting how.

This is why waves are so important in trends. It counts how far you are along in that trend. So I’m sure you’ve heard the term. The trend is your friend until the end. That’s instructing us on is to know how early or late you are in a trend you only want to trade early in the new trend because the leader of the trend goes it’s not your friend anymore because your enemy actually.

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY BASICS

That’s when we start looking for reversal trades. The trend is your friend. All right now we have trend reversal trades you could have gotten in before this on a trend reversal trade etc.. But these are very very reliable. So let’s define where does Wave 3 come in. Now here’s another thing that people will tell you that I disagree with and it goes back to the higher high higher low higher high higher low thing.

OK higher highs are an oversimplification. So it’s not necessarily important. For example in fact it can be deceiving it can be a bearish pattern. So here we have lower lows. The way I just have to define a wave three is we take this and we’ll look at. Let me bring up my drawing a line here. I’ll take that low straight across in an order for this to be a wave 3.

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY PREDICTIONS

Here we have this is the start of where we could start a week three. It ends up putting in its low here. Notice the cycle indicator stays down below the mid-range of the indicator this whole time. That’s something to understand about cycle cycles or not even they expand and the contract and sometimes they actually disappear.

If you’ve heard understood or studied cycle theory or Elliott Wave theory analysis in detail then you understand what I’m talking about. Again now here we put in a wave five now counting waves this way of your average of count is if we have five. But let me show you something else so we get a higher high here. Mainlines just a little bit off there but you get the idea. So we get a little higher high here. But where does it close it closes and opens and closes below the high of we have one, therefore we call it a failed three.

ELLIOTT WAVE INDICATOR

And that’s called a rejection of value in market profile theory. Saying that the prices went up here but it didn’t close up there. It’s really not bullish yet. In fact the market rejected these higher prices. Now that’s just temporary. Can turn around in fact it did turn around here. And another thing to look at is the range of the bars all these range all these bars here a very narrow range.

You’ve got a cycle indicator that’s mathematical. You’ve got a rules based on price structure that’s mathematical and everybody gets the exact same way of count. So this can actually be programmed into software and look at that we put in a field name and we’re put in a real line.

It just doesn’t in my opinion make much sense to try to impose or reduce a big trend down to five waves and then expand a little trends into five waves and really those two trends are very different things. Why not number them for what they are either long trends or short trends. And to put numbers on them so that we can identify whether we’re really in a new trend late in an old trend and make it all very objective so that we’re all seeing the same thing and there’s really no guesswork to it at all.

GET MY FREE MARKET ENTRY TIMING INDICATOR

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

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Forex Trade Strategy That Works in Today’s Markets

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Forex trade strategy that works
Forex trade strategy that works

Welcome to this trading tutorial on a Forex Trade strategy that works so well that I trade this every time it sets up to this day. I’ve been trading this for years and this darned thing just continues to work. See the 10 minute video below for the full tutorial.

Here is the most successful forex trading strategy I’ve found. By the way this also works on stocks as many as futures. Pretty much anything you can chart. Let’s introduce a couple of general concepts to set up the trade, why it works and the logic behind it.

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FOREX TRADE STRATEGY THAT WORKS

It’s generally accepted and I will be the first to acknowledge that there are many variations within this but generally acknowledged in the trading community that there are two types of dynamics in the market:

  1. Trend trading.
  2. Reversion to the mean trading.

Within trend trading we can include such things as low volatility breakouts that are starting a new trend trend reversals or a type of trend trade even though there were versal trade.

Reversion to the mean trades are among the best Forex trade strategy that works because they aren’t quite as well spread throughout the trading community and that’s what this one is. This is a reversion to the mean tape trade and I like these kind of trades they’re not typically as big of a reward to risk ratio but the win loss ratio on that can be very very high.

THE BEST FOREX STRATEGY EVER

If you like scalping, this may be the best Forex strategy ever. It can be a great way of making some money while you’re waiting for trends to set up. Some people say that the market’s only trend 20 percent of the time.

This green line here is the 50 simple moving average. And it’s very important that with this type of trading you use the simple moving average and not an exponential moving average or any type of moving average. That’s one thing that kind of blows people’s minds especially beginners they think well wait a minute I don’t want the slower moving average or I want a faster one because the faster moving average will follow trend and price action more closely.

SIMPLE FOREX TRADING STRATEGIES

So counter-intuitive to a lot of people. Most people think you need something complicated to be successful at trading Forex. But most profitable traders I know actually use very simple Forex trading strategies.

I always use a combination of a lagging and leading indicator and that’s part of my strategy. I use the two in combination together. The 50 SMA we use as our intermediate to trend indication. Prices above the 50  period simple moving average.That’s the kind of thing we expect in a trend.

FOREX STRATEGIES THAT ACTUALLY WORK

It’ll wiggle a little bit but basically going sideways price action goes sideways. This is one type of cycle in the market by the way. Most people think of cycles of being low high low low and that is one type of cycle that’s the oscillation type of cycle. But there are actually many types of cycles. And one of them is the trending and non trending cycles. Markets go three times were the trend. And then they go through times where they are not trending. So that’s some other type of cycle. Right. So that’s fine then. We continue to go out. Let me show you a reversion to the mean type of example.

So now we get back into a trending market with SMA going up. Prices going up higher or highest higher lows. All that great. That’s what we expect. Come back down now. Here is what we’re looking at. This is a reversion to the mean type of pattern so now all we have is wait a minute the 50 SMA I mean here’s the basic structure it’s a price structure type of trade in.

This is one of the forex strategies that actually work.

FOREX TRADING STRATEGIES FOR BEGINNERS

We had a few extra details to it but here’s the general structure of it. I love this trade for its simplicity, which also makes it one of the best Forex trading strategies for beginners.

Now we get something different instead of praise continuing to go up as the 50 period simple moving average is going up. We actually have price go down below the 50 period simple moving average for the first time and it goes down pretty hard. So it’s below the 50 period simple moving average. But guess what? The the 50 period simple moving average does not move down. It continues moving up and that’s the structure that is the key structure to this Forex trade strategy that works.

MOST SUCCESSFUL FOREX TRADING STRATEGY

So this is a basically what’s happening here is a high volatility move to the downside in a short period of time. So we could create a rectangle with that that’s what we normally do. But this is the structure as you see. This is not the norm. But it is perhaps  the most successful Forex trading strategy that I’ve come across.

FOREX STRATEGIES RESOURCES

One of the Forex strategies resources you’ll likely want to use is a scanner, and you can scan for these trades pretty easily. Just set up a scan that says you know price bars whether you want the open high open low close all that stuff. The entire bar has to be well below the 50 period simple moving average.

Then you just put into the scan prices below the 50 amain and the 50 SMA is angling up. In other words know the close of today is greater than the close of one day ago two days ago three days ago something like that to have the angle of the 50 period simple moving average angling up.

FOREX STRATEGIES REVEALED

Whatever scanner you use can help you find these Forex trading strategies revealed in their results.

These trades set up a lot or all the time but frankly most of the best trades in the world are the ones that don’t set up that often. They’re a bit of an anomaly and these seem counter-intuitive. And that’s ironically what makes them actually work. Because a lot of people aren’t going to trade that they don’t get it. They don’t understand the philosophy the mathematics behind it and the traits that most people take are the ones that don’t work. They’re professionals and understand you know an anomaly like this is something that gives you an opportunity that most retailers are now going to take.

GET MY FREE MARKET ENTRY TIMING INDICATOR

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

What did you think of this tutorial on Forex trade strategy that works? Enter your answer in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page.

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Keltner Channel Trading Strategy Video Tutorial

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Keltner Channel Trading Strategy
Keltner Channel Trading Strategy

Welcome to this tutorial on Keltner Channel Trading Strategy and the keltner channel breakout system Bollinger Band and the Squeeze. See the 10 minute video below for the full tutorial.

We’re going to do a little comparison between these two types of envelopes. They are called envelopes because the lines envelope above and below the midline and the midline in this case. We’re going to use as the 20 period moving average which is right here.

So right now I have it as you can see the Keltner Channel on here. We’re looking at a Disney daily chart. And one of the big differences between the Keltner Channels. The Bollinger Bands are the Keltner Channels for mt4 and other charting platforms use an average true range to set the channel distance.

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VIDEO TRANSCRIPTION

So these are the channels here, and then we’ve got a 20 period moving average here in the middle. And by the way that is a 20 period exponential moving average. That’s typically what’s used for Keltner Channels.

Now Bollinger bands, they are calculated differently instead of using an average true range so when people use this as a trend indicator. Primarily what they are looking for is for it to show an impulse move here, strength to the upside, hit the upper Keltner Channel. Now see here it did not and but here it does so that shows a strong impulse move to the upside. Then we are looking for it to not to come back and retrace and it hit the bottom channel in order to maintain strength to the upside.

KELTNER CHANNEL TRADING STRATEGY

And that philosophy in general, I agree with. Big part of my trading is looking for the direction of that dominant energy in the market and this would be one way of doing it. So that works very well here in this particular situation. Let’s look at another one.

So as you see here, we had been in a downtrend and then we come back, we reverse, we hit the upper Keltner Channel. The market does continue up and up and up, and then it comes back down, and well let’s move the screen forward here. You can see and so in this case, actually we’ll just go ahead and move it all the way forward. And you know it looks pretty great for a keltner channel breakout system.

It does come down and hit the lower Keltner Channel and does not come back and reach the upper one, and continues with a nice downtrend. So that’s the basic use of it, the basic way of reading it. And it works pretty well if you got a market that is having a rather low volatility trend, and Disney tends to move that way.  However not all markets do. So let me show you some other examples. I’ll just, I’ll show you one more.

SCALPING WITH KELTNER CHANNEL

Now I’ve brought up GLD, so just as a different example. This one we hit the lower line. Now we go back up, hit the lower one here. And so that would indicate an impulse move to the downside but then we have one that hits to the upside which is what we don’t want in order to start a downtrend. But then it really goes down.

By the way other thing to notice is look how far price bars get below the line in the keltner channel trading strategy. So it doesn’t, if you get a high volatility market or particular time at any market, it’s not going to contain price action very well, Bollinger bands do a better job of that. One way around this however in some softwares, some software programs, you can do multiple multipliers. Well that’s good, multiple multipliers.

KELTNER CHANNEL MT4, EXCEL AND OTHER SOFTWARE

You could do, instead of just having one offset multiplier here, you could do 2, you could do 3, and that will help. A lot of people actually do that, and that’s good then you’ll have 2 bands above the mid-range, and 2 bands below the mid-range. So that’s one way to real help to answer that problem. But again you see that we go down here, well below and then we come back up well above and then we go back well below.

And so this is one of the problems and one of the reasons that I said I don’t like using this as a trend indicator is because it’s typically based on 20 periods. 20 period exponential moving average. And 20 bars is not enough to have a trend in my opinion. But word trend means in the Webster’s Dictionary, ‘The Extended General Direction of something.’ So trend by definition is a long term move, not a short term move. I think 20 period is too short of a term to measure trend. I like to go with 50. And obviously there’s really different opinions about it, that’s no problem, but that’s my opinion. And so down and down and down we go.

KELTNER CHANNEL BOLLINGER BAND AND THE SQUEEZE

I am in the Bollinger bands now. They are the red envelopes here and here. And you’ll see I am using essentially the same settings. Even though the equation is different, so I am using the same settings essentially that I did for keltner channel trading strategy. Again the equation is different, so that’s why obviously they are different.

One thing you’ll notice right away is that the Bollinger Bands, the red lines are able to capture more or contain more price action than the Keltner Channel. The Bollinger Bands they will expand and contract more. That’s because they are not based on average true range, they are based on the standard deviation which varies, so they measure volatility much better in my opinion.  Use them more for volatility than I use them for trend, again we are using a 20 period moving average, so I wouldn’t use it for trend. But for volatility I think it is very good.

Also couple of another thing that I like about the Bollinger bands is that not only do they contain price action or more price actions, so for example here, you just get three bars above the Keltner Channel, but here is the signal that I use a lot where you get a real body outside of the Bollinger band, and to me that shows extreme move.

KELTNER CHANNEL PARAMETERS

A very very unusual high volatility move that is generally unsustainable. So the keltner channel trading strategy doesn’t show you that because you get so many bars above and below it all the time. And but you don’t get as many bars above and below the Bollinger bands, and so it’s an usual activity and when it is, it’s usually measuring exhaustion. And that’s very valuable information, very valuable.

So as we come down here for example, we see that yes we are hitting the bottom here. The 2 levels are pretty even, but as volatility increases, the Bollinger bands start to move apart. That’s a, that’s a signal of increased volatility.

Something that the Keltner Channel doesn’t give you. Then when we get down to here, then this is very important, notice that all these bars here, all those bars are below the Keltner Channel but only these couple of bars here are below the Bollinger band. When I see that, then I say, oh okay Bollinger band captures the vast majority of price action and because now we have gone down so far that we’ve broken below that.

KELTNER CHANNEL TRADING STRATEGY CONCLUSION

I think we are coming to the end of that move. And that is a great signal that works a lot, and there you go. So it comes back up and that is the end of that down move, end of that trend, if you want to measure trend that way.

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

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CCI Indicator Strategy Video – Best Trading Strategy

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CCI indicator strategy
CCI indicator strategy best method

The best signal offered by the cci indicator strategy will surprise you and works equally well if you’re day trading or swing trading stocks, Forex, futures or E-minis.

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VIDEO TRANSCRIPTION

Welcome to this tutorial on CCI Indicators strategy for winning trades. I am Barry Burns with Top Dog Trading, and let’s jump right into it.

One of my basic principles for trading is this, this is really really important, commit this to memory.  In the direction of the dominant energy of the market. The market meaning whatever market I am trading. Whether its futures, whether its day trading, swing trading, stocks, forex, whatever. So that’s the key, now that’s a great principle but then the next question is, fine but how do we determine the dominant energy of the market. Okay, great question.

CCI INDICATOR BEST SETTINGS

I like to use a period of 20. Some people like to use a period of 14. I find that creates a choppier indicator and I don’t find it to be quite as easy to do trade. So I like 14, if you are using. I like 20, if you are using 14, that’s great. If it works for you, great, hey god bless you, and the horse you are riding on. I don’t complain if anybody’s making money with 14, then keep doing it. But I find personally that 20 is a setting that gives us better, less choppy signals.

Now here is the way that we are going to trade this. So back to looking at the direction of the dominant energy of the market. They are just mathematical equations. Right? So you’ve got 0, you’ve got a 100, you’ve got 200. And then below 0, you have -100 and -200. So the way you created the formula was intended that 70 to 80 percent of the CCI indicator strategy values would fall between 100 and 1-00. So what that means is that anything in there is just kind of an average range, nothing really special is going on.

Now number 2 is a lot of people look for those to be overbought, oversold signals, I don’t. The CCI is actually not a bounded indicator like some indicators like stochastics for example or RSI. So, but it’s rare that it gets too far above 200, or too far below negative 200. Even though it can, and it does from time to time. But here is what you have to understand. When we are below -100, that’s actually showing strength, in other words, dominant energy to the downside.

CCI INDICATOR STRATEGY

I am now looking for shorts. Especially here in this situation. The dominant trend is down. A long term trend is down, so I am only looking for shorts right now. And we’re early in a new trend. That’s the other thing how early or late are you in a trend. That’s very very important. So late in a trend, I might be looking for reversals but early in a trend, I am looking to trade with the trend.

We see early in a new trend here and we go down, CCI indicator strategy goes down below -100. That shows that statistically it’s got more strength than average. And therefore great, we’re showing strength to the downside. Still not ready to trade though. Because here is the key, now I want to look for the retrace. So the retrace, I want to be weak. I want strength to the downside if I am going to go short and I want weakness to the upside. Where do we go here, we go just a little bit above 0.

If we got above 100, now that’s a strong signal to the upside, I’d no longer be interested in going short. Because then we just had basically a weak bottom type of energy where we had very strong selling, followed immediately by strong buying. And that’s not what we want. What we want, in fact here is just a basic overarching principle, then we’ll show it to you on the CCI again, is I want the market to go down on strength, and what does that really look like, I mean what is really behind that.

CCI INDICATOR FOREX

What’s behind that is we have a lot of traders making a lot of trades, lot of trades coming through the market with velocity, speed if you are looking at your price action you would see it moving fast. If you are looking at time and sales window, you see those orders coming through fast, and we want big volume. Not just a lot of volume, but we want individual orders with large volume. So we got the big boys, we got the whales who are shorting.

Now the market oscillates, right. It goes down, then it pauses, then it goes down, retraces, goes down, retraces, so here is the key. Goes down on strength, now we got to watch the retrace, the retrace is the key. This is what a lot of people don’t understand. That retrace, that is your key. We want that to be coming up on weakness. So we don’t mind retraces, they are fine, they are the normal flow of the market, the respiration of the market if you will. Inhale, exhale, inhale, exhale, the markets do that, that’s natural, that’s normal.

CCI VS RSI

But when it comes back up a little bit, we want behind the scenes for that to be maybe, some people just take taking profits who have gone short or perhaps some retailers buying there who you know, they are just buying with their one lots or a hundred shares or whatever. Plus they are amateurs, they don’t know what they are doing, so they are probably going to be wrong. What we don’t want is to look over to time and sales and to see huge block trades buying. So down on strength, up on weakness, back down on strength. That’s what I basically mean by trading in the direction of the dominant energy of the market. Because if the retrace was weak, the dominant energy remains down.

That’s what happening on the chart and price action basically. That’s what happening behind the scenes with the actual buying and selling. Now we can map that with indicators. So today of course we are talking about the commodity channel index, the CCI indicator strategy. And so one of the ways we do that is we look for, okay first of all the dominant energy being down, getting below -100, retracing back to 0’s perfectly fine. A little bit above 0 is perfectly fine. Above 100, not so fine. Okay, not so fine.

WOODIES CCI METHOD INDICATOR

That little green line there, its 100, the number is not there but that’s what that is. And so we are showing more strength when we come back up, what happens, okay we get back up here to again, a little bit above 0, not quite to a 100, and then we go down to 200. We get down to 200, but here is the issue now. Now we are in a 5 wave trend. So, and this is an extreme reading too, negative to 100 is a very extreme reading.

Now again we are watching that retrace. Right, so okay we have got nice strong move up. We want a strong move up and we want a weak move down. Where do we go down? Well here is our zero line. The scaling kind of changed a little bit there. So just to show you, it doesn’t even get back down below the zero. In fact this whole time, it never gets back below 0, the black like there. And so therefore, just basically strong move up, weak move down, strong move up, weak move down, strong move up, weak move down, strong move up, weak move down, okay.

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

What did you think of this tutorial on CCI indicator strategy? Enter your answer in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page.

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FREE GIFT!

Also I’m giving away one of my favorite trade strategies that works in trading the markets. Just fill out the yellow form at the top of the sidebar on the right. Once you do that, I’ll personally send you an email with first video.

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