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Forex Market Cycles Trading Indicator Part 3

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Forex Market Cycles
Forex Market Cycles, best forex market cycle analysis, forex market indicator

Forex Market Cycles Trading Indicator Part 3: This video (and article) on forex market cycles trading will teach you not only valuable insights to improve on forex trading, but also on stocks, futures, and more. This discussion about forex market cycles will also present the fundamentals of trading, the five energies which run the market, which can help you in your trades.

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Forex Market Cycles Trading Indicator Part 3

Welcome to part three of our series on forex market cycles. This one, we’re titling FOREX market cycles trading, but it also applies to stocks, futures, pretty much any type of market. This is one of those cycles that is rarely talked about. In fact, I hardly hear anyone talk about this and yet it is one of the most important. So we have taught about calendar cycles and we have talked about high volatility, low volatility cycles. Well, this one is when I call my order chaos cycle theory. First of all, there’s one theory that the market is a random walk. In other words, chaotic, random, and you’ve probably heard of the book random walk down Wall Street if you haven’t even read it.

It’s a popular book, very well thought out, very well researched, and it is a good book and there’s a lot of truth to it. Basically, the author said that everything that can be known about the market is already known and, therefore, the markets are already perfectly efficient and if we can’t get an edge and trading or investing. So that’s one theory. Another theory is exactly the opposite and these people say the market is perfectly orderly, predictable and they’ll often use mathematical models, often geometrical models. And here you’re getting into schools of thoughts such as Gan, probably the most famous, and some followers and people have followed up with his work, maybe altered it a little bit. It’s basically saying we can predict the market five years out, 10 years out, 20 years out to the exact day, time and price.

Forex market cycle analysis

Two completely opposing points of view and some of them even have some history to back up some predictions that they’ve made out into the future, which were pretty accurate. Obviously, I’ve read both of these positions and each one seems very convincing. They showed a lot of examples and you can say, ‘that worked, that made sense.’ But then, when you’re done reading both sides of the research, you’re stumped because they are completely and utterly contradictory. So, as I was doing this, I realized, yes, they both have examples that support to their positions. So there might be an issue here where sometimes the market is a totally random walk and other times when it is very orderly and predictable. That’s why I came up with this idea that there is another type of cycle where the markets go through periods of being orderly and chaotic.

While they’re chaotic, they are unpredictable and you cannot establish a probability scenario. Therefore, you should not be trading them. On the other hand, the times we do want to trade is when the markets are very orderly and then we can provide a probability scenario. This is why overtrading is one of the cardinal sins because people can trade for a while and maybe you’ve had this experience where you’ve traded a methodology and it’s worked for a little while and then all of a sudden it seems like it stops working. One of the reasons for that may be that while you’re trading it, the market is in an orderly cycle and then it goes into a chaotic cycle, and your probability scenario goes away just because the market isn’t a random walk during that time and nobody’s taught you about these cycles.

Forex cycle analysis

So if you’re trading during both cycles, then you’re going to be overtrading because you shouldn’t trade during quarterly times. And this is the foundation of waiting. What I do is I wait for the alignment of what I call five energies in the market. Well, how do we determine now when we have an orderly cycle in the market? I don’t like to use the word predictable because that assigns too much certainty to what we’re doing. But probability, which is really all we need to exploit that probability over a large period of time, is what makes us money. So here’s how I determine an orderly cycle, I’m looking for the energies in the charts: the money, money flow, buying, selling, buying pressure or selling pressure volume, and the speed of the orders. So I break the energy of the market down into five subsets.

Now you can add more to this, but these five are important and I’ll show you why in a moment. But first, let me just give you the list. So step one in my trading method is trend, and I always trade by going right through this checklist. Start with step one. What’s the trend? A good place to start because I want to know which size of the market I should be in. Number two, trend is not enough. A lot of people think you just to trade with the trend. No, there are two types of trends, strong trends and week trends. Again, that is a huge vacuum in your knowledge of trading and you will lose money unless you learn how to determine whether the market has momentum behind it because momentum is strength, and if a trend is weak, it will fail.

Forex cycle indicator

The trend is your friend until the end and you will be getting in at the end, so you must always ask yourself a question. In fact, I’d encourage you to write this down and here’s the question, is this a strong trend or a weak trend? And Ask yourself that question every time before you take a trade. Step number three, cycle. So now that we have a trend and it’s strong, then we go to step three, but only if we have step one and two in place. Now, we say when do I want to get in? I want to buy the final cycle low so the market doesn’t make another low after I bought. By the way, that’s where my cycle indicator comes in, which I did get away for free.

I offer it through a live Webinar, at least at the time of this recording. I’m still offering that for free and it takes about an hour to explain it – not only how to get it set up in your charts, but how to trade it so we modify an indicator that’s already in your charts to turn it into a cycle indicator. So if you want that, just send me an email at barry@topdogtrading.com. Like I said, if it’s still available, we’ll let you know the date and time of the next webinar. It’s all for free. Now, step four then, we’ve got a trend that’s strong, we’ve got the time to get in and we just want to make sure that we’re buying at a support level or shorting at a resistance level, and that’s all on the short-term chart.

How market cycles work

Then number five, I look at the longer term timeframe and I want to make sure I’m trading in the direction of the strength, the momentum of that longer timeframe. Not trend, I don’t care what the trend on the longer timeframe is. So that’s one of the heresies of traditional technical analysis that I violate. It’s not the only one by the way. But if you’re making money with traditional technical analysis, God bless you. Most people aren’t, by the way, there’s a reason for that. It’s not that it’s no good, it’s just that the markets have changed since those rules were written. Now, markets move very differently because of technology – computerized trading, algo-trading, commoditization of retail, traders direct access, high-frequency trading, all of this stuff has dramatically changed the way markets move since the establishment of traditional technical analysis.

So you’ve gotta keep up with the times. Thus, trend on the longer timeframe no longer means anything. Used to work, but no more. So I wait for the alignment of these five energies. Now, here’s the key, as I measure these, we’re going to use indicators not because indicators are any kind of magic. They’re not magical, they’re just mathematical. But I use them because being mathematical gives me objective measurements so that I don’t have to be a discretionary trader. And indicators themselves don’t make us money, right? They do what they promised, well the answer’s in the question, they indicate. But they do give us an exact value so that the measurement of those energies is objective, rule-based and duplicable. So when I share this with people, they can do it as well. It’s not just that I’m good.

Cycle analysis trading

So here’s the bottom line on how this all then creates a probability scenario. At each point, I’m looking to possibly take a trade. I simply ask myself how many of those five energies are aligned and give each set up a score of one to five. Now, the higher the score, the higher the probability of success. So, I liken this to taking each trade to court, but here’s the key. These particular five energies were strategically chosen because they are independent and uncorrelated to each other. That’s why these five energies, as I said in passing earlier, you can use more. But these five are special because they are very uncorrelated to each other. That’s what makes it significant when they’re all bullish or bearish. That gives you a preponderance of the evidence and gives you a probability scenario.

So that’s when we then say, now we have an orderly cycle in the market. The market is moving in an orderly manner and we still have to use our stops. We still have to hedge our positions because anything can happen at any time. But that’s okay because we can survive those as long as we use good risk management and money management. But this is how I establish a probability scenario. I find cycles that are in a time of moving in an orderly way that gives me a probability scenario.

Our Favorite Rubber Band Trade Strategy

So if you liked this video on forex market cycles, please understand that it’s free. But if you get value from it, then you should pay that value forward. And the best way to do that is clicking the share button below. If you’re watching on Youtube, please subscribe. You’ll get notified every time I release a new tutorial, which is about every week. Click the thumbs up icon and leave a comment. I really love your comments. I’ve got a special offer for you if you’d like to learn more details about the five energy map. Obviously, I can’t go into all the details. Just want to give you the overview so you get the concepts.

The best place to start is to start for free with me and just get my rubber band trade. It’s absolutely free, tells you where to get in and out and where to place your stops. It has a very high win-loss ratio and I want you to start making money immediately, without having to pay. So this video’s about 26 minutes. You’d get my rubber band trade strategy absolutely free by clicking on the image in the top right corner of this video, or in the description below the video. If you happened to find this video somewhere other than youtube, there’s probably a link below or an opt-in form on the side. And once you do that, I’ll personally email the video to you with the rubber band trade strategy.

GET MY FREE MARKET ENTRY TIMING INDICATOR

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

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Day Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 2

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Day Trading Stock Market Cycles
Day trading stock market cycles, trading in most profitable times in the market, expansion-contraction cycles

Day Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 2: This video (and article) on day trading stock market cycles will teach you how to time your trades during expansion-contraction cycles, allowing you to trade in the most profitable times in the market. This will surely increase your earnings and greatly contribute to your overall trading psychology.

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Day Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 2

Welcome my friend to part two of trading stock market cycles. Today, we’re going to talk a little bit about day trading, but a lot of what I’ll share is going to be applicable to swing trading as well, and it also applies for stocks, FOREX, futures, and commodities. But I’m willing to give you an example at the end that is specifically for day trading. By the way, if you missed part one, then you can watch this first. Part one is not necessary to watch before this part two, but go ahead and after you’re done with this, type in trading stock market cycles part one, top dog trading, into the search bar of Youtube and you find it. So last time we talked about seasonal or calendar cycles, agricultural seasons or retail seasons, travel, etc. Today, we’re talking about a very different type of cycle.

This one is volatility. So what do I mean by volatility cycles? Well, I call these trades, this family of trades, Ex-Con trades, and that stands for expansion-contraction. So volatility has to do with the range of the market within a period of time. How much does price cover with regard to the expansion of the movement of prices from highs to lows and lows to highs, and then we get into narrow range markets and that’s when we have contraction – that’s actually a cycle in the market. So you will see markets that are sometimes very volatile, and they make these big huge swings and people think ‘that’s really exciting, I want to get into that market.’ And then other times people see markets that are in very narrow range and they’ll say ‘I don’t want to get into that.’

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There is some truth to that, but it is a little trickier than it is at first glance. So I want to share with you how I trade this and see if it makes sense to you since most people, in my opinion, trade this backwards. And I’ve done very well with this type of trading by the way – I’m speaking not only from experience but from success. So here’s how I see most people doing this, they will scan for high volatility markets to trade. And it kind of makes sense, right? There’s a logic to that. A lot of times, there are certain stocks or forex pairs or futures commodities that are high volatility markets, and they leave it at that as though it’s always a high volatility market, a market that’s always tending to move and make big swings.

Of course, they want to get on that to make some big profits quickly. Problem is they don’t realize that this is a cycle that pretty much every market goes through. Some markets will, let’s say there’s a particular stock that’s highly volatile, well it’s not that it’s always highly volatile, it’ll go through a period of movement and then all of a sudden it starts to slow down and contract. We’ve actually seen that in some cryptocurrencies recently where everybody gets all excited. Now, the CME and SIBO have come on board and it started to contract a bit again, so there you go. ‘You don’t want to chase the high volatility’ is one of the ways of saying this. In practical terms, one of the mistakes people do is they will use a scanner and scan for high volatility markets to trade.

Stock market cycles analysis

The problem is that by the time a scanner accumulates enough data for it to then show up and mathematically trigger as a high volatility market, then it could be very close to the time the period or that cycle ends, and the next cycle of low volatility or contraction to kick in. Then they wonder, ‘how come every time I get into these markets, they really move and go into a narrow range.’ And they think ‘my broker’s trading against me, the market makers, they got that out for me.’ No, it’s just that they haven’t been taught about the Ex-Con cycle, expansion-contraction cycle. So they’re always trading the wrong end of it. And especially because, as I said, mathematically, the scanners need a certain amount of time and number of data to accumulate in order to indicate that this is a high volatility market.

Sound familiar? Because what I like to do is exactly the opposite and just like most things in trading, the opposite usually works. So if you have ever felt like ‘I’m a perfectly imperfect trader, and if I just did the opposite of everything I did, I’d probably make some money.’ Well, you know what, probably not far from the truth because trading, actually, is very counter-intuitive. So what I do is I trade inside contraction. Now, what does that look like? Well, this is not completely new. There are other people who do this as well and you’ve heard of these types of patterns – triangles. I love trading triangles. In fact, if you want to learn exactly how I trade inside triangles, I have another video specifically on that technique, just type in top dog trading and triangles, but I don’t wait for the breakout of the triangle.

Stock market cycles forecast

Some people wait for the breakout of the triangle, and then the retrace before they get in. I don’t want for any of that. I trade while it’s inside the triangle before the breakout. So I’m entering inside of contraction. Another example will be Bolinger band squeezes, very similar to triangles. So you get the idea. These are patterns that are very well known, but timing when to get into these is the key. Speaking of timing, by the way, I do have a tremendous timing indicator, would be happy to give it to you absolutely free since you are watching this. Be happy to give it to you. Just send an email over to me at barry@topdogtrading.com and we’ll show you how to get that absolutely free and that will really help you with your timing.

I find this as one of the things that people neglect. They understand price levels, support resistance pretty well and that’s great, but there’s another side of the chart, not just the Y-axis which is price, but then there’s the X-axis and that is time. That’s 50 percent of the chart. You better know how to time your entries with precision, and that’s what this indicator will help you. I promised to give you a day trading setup here and so that’s what this is. This is a typical pattern and you’re probably familiar with it. The market moves most of the time in the morning between the open of the market and launch, and then during lunchtime, the market quiets down, goes into beta consult, consolidation in the swings between the highs and lows, gets more narrow range, and then in the afternoon, it breaks out again.

Successful day intraday trading strategies

So not every day is like this. This is again a meta-pattern. It is not an everyday pattern, so this won’t happen every day, but it gives you something to look for. One of the traits that I look for, for example, is to trade at the end of lunchtime. So I am watching and saying ‘let’s find out a time to trade this inside of lunchtime, but toward the end of lunchtime.’ I got to tell you a little secret here; sometimes back when I was trained at the Chicago mercantile exchange, we would watch the whales and because everybody knew this meta-pattern. Again, this is the problem, right? Once everybody gets to know something then it stops working, though it’s not that it stops working all the time. But, again, everyone knows this.

So the big money, they don’t want to be followed. And what a lot of these guys would do is they turn in the accounts over to their fledglings and they would just basically say, ‘do no harm while I’m gone,’ and they leave the building or they’d leave the room I should say, and it’d be gone maybe a little bit and then they’d come back in. They didn’t actually go to lunch. They wanted everyone to think they left and then they would take a trade during lunchtime.

Stock market cycles charts

I find these happen about once or twice a week, but this is another one that you can look for. Again, you’re going to have to be patient because it’s not gonna happen every day. Nothing in trading is meant to be easy. In fact, if you feel like the market’s against you, you are 100 percent correct because the other people in the market, especially the professionals, they are not there to give you money. They are there to take your money. So they make it as difficult as possible. They always tried to hide their tracks. They know these common things that people are looking for and they do intentionally try to throw you off of their tails.

There you go. The patient one is the one who wins. In fact, I’ve often said that a professional trader, outpatient amateur traders. So these little anomalies, it’s not even an anomaly because it does happen pretty much every week, once a week, sometimes twice a week. And when it doesn’t, then you just wait until toward the end of lunch and trade into the afternoon. But if you wait for the breakout in the afternoon, usually, you’re giving up too much money. The reward is pretty much going to be gone by the time you see it again, and that’s too late. Professionals are early and retailers are always late. So you’ve got to be early, and this is why you need to read charts. That’s why you need to learn how to read the inner details.

Using stock market cycles analysis

I always say that the dollars are in the details because every day, it’s going to be a little different. Again, the markets are not here to make it easy for you. You gotta read it day by day, bar by bar because each day is going to be different. So, if you liked this video on day trading stock market cycles, please understand that sure it’s free. But if you got value from it, you actually have a moral obligation to pay it forward to others. Click on that beautiful little share button below so that others can benefit from it as well. Also, please subscribe to the videos because that way you’ll get notified every time I’d come up with a new tutorial, which is every week, click the thumbs up icon and leave a comment.

I love your comments, that lets me know you’re engaged and it encourages me to create more free tutorials. As a special offer to you, I’m giving you one of my favorite trade strategies. I call it the rubber band trade strategy, which has a very high win-loss ratio. In this trading strategy, I get into the details of exactly where I enter, place my stops and get out. I’m going to give it to you for free in a 26-minute video. You can get the rubber band trade strategy absolutely free by clicking on that image in the top right corner of the video or in the description below. And if you’re not watching on Youtube, there’s probably a link below or an opt-in form on the side. Once you do that, I will personally email the video to you with the rubber band trade strategy.

GET MY FREE MARKET ENTRY TIMING INDICATOR

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

What did you think of this tutorial on Day Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 2? Enter your answer in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page.

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Also, I’m giving away one of my favorite Day Trading Stock Market Cycles strategies that works in trading the markets. Just fill out the yellow form at the top of the sidebar on the right. Once you do that, I’ll personally send you an email with the first video.

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Forex Training Video

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Forex Training
Forex training, best forex trading training that works in today's market

Best Forex Training: This video (and article) on forex training will teach you how to effectively use support resistance levels to better time your trades in order to boost your trading performance. This strategy can give an edge against other traders.

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Forex Training

Welcome my friend to this forex training. By the way, what I’m going to share here also applies to stocks, E-Minis, commodities, future markets and so forth. What we’re going to share with you today is something that is quite simple, but the dollars run the details. So we want to give you the details here that while keeping things simple, just a few tweaks here, we make sure that you’re doing it as professionals do and not overlooking some of these things and just trading general ideas that really are not quite detailed enough. You know, Einstein is attributed with a quote of saying keep everything as simple as possible but no simpler. All right, so we’re going to be talking about support resistance levels – work very well in all markets and there is a good reason for that. Primarily, the reason is, well let’s draw a level here.

So what happens is when people see the market; when I say people, I mean the market participants. The market comes up to here and comes down, so now, as people are going to be buying back, everybody in this parakeet watches that level. So this is one of the nice things about these support resistance levels based on previous major swing highs and swing lows. Here we have a daily chart, that’s a common timeframe. Everybody sees that high, and you have the masses who are seeing this, so you’re going to get a crowd effect. The mass psychology comes into play and what’s happening when the market comes back up to that level is people are starting to say “well, last time we got up to this level, the general consensus of the market was that we’re not going to pay more than that.”

Forex Trading Training

This price over here, that’s what we’re going to pay. That’s getting too expensive. Now, will sentiment change? Sure, in three weeks, absolutely, sentiment can change, and often does, but it’s still in people’s mind. They’re looking at that, they’re considering it, and so that’s the psychology that’s going on. And that’s why of all the support resistance levels that there are, whether it’s FIBONACCI, whether floor trader pivot if you’re doing intraday trading or any other type of support resistance you might look at, I consider these major swing highs and lows on big charts like this, like daily charts, things that the masses are all looking at, to be the most significant and the most reliable support resistance levels of them all. So I often get questions that have the word best in them, in this case, would be “what’s the best support resistance tool to use?”

This is one time that I have a clear answer and it is major previous swing highs and lows. And major, I’m talking about you just look at it in a visually pops out to every human being. And that’s it. Now, because it does have that mass psychology, here’s the problem. As you look at that level, we see that the market went through it, went up to here and then it went down to there. Wait a minute, it didn’t work in maps because we drew it wrong. Great, thanks. So you don’t do it at the highs, you do not do it at the highs and you do it at the real bodies of the candle.

Forex Trading

That real bodies for beginners mean these colored areas here which define the open and the close, not the high and the low. And the reason that we draw them there, that’s the professional way to draw your support resistance levels, is because the spot forex does not have a central exchange. So you are dealing with, first of all, all these different exchanges, all banks, people in all different countries, they’re getting different price quotes, have different spreads, right? So there are variances. And then we’ve got millions of people, retailers, a lot of them amateurs and they don’t know what they’re doing. They’re putting in orders all over the place and getting them in and out real fast.

Then you got your banks, your funds and then you got to your professional traders that are scalpers. So you’ve got all kinds of different levels of traders, size of traders, nationalities through different exchanges and brokers. Bottom line is that the market, as you chart it, is not going to stop to the penny, pip, or tick, in this case, the pip at various highs and lows. You can’t expect that there’s going to be a little more chaos there. So these highs here are that randomness, that chaos, that noise. And we want to, again, look at fair value; basically what the masses, the conglomerate of the mass psychology of all those people, are finding as the value of this high and that’s going to be the real bodies. So, when we draw up there, now all of a sudden you say, “It does hold here”.

Forex Trading for Beginners

Now it doesn’t hold the low, but again, we discovered that that doesn’t matter. That’s just a little bit of extra noise. It does. When you look at the real body of the Red Candle, for example, there it is. Now look over here, there it is. So this is the proper way to draw it in order to allow for that noise. And don’t expect these highs and lows to come in at the exact pip. So that’s point one. Point two is when the market comes into these levels, look at your candlestick bars and you don’t need to use candlesticks necessarily, but I just think it’s easier to see the candlesticks and so again, we’re taking that same principle now and we’re using candlesticks.

I’m not going to, again, this is meant to be a very basic lesson, so I’m not going to use candlestick terminology. For those of you who don’t know the candlestick terminology, I’m going to just point out the principle. Again, the principle of it is when we get to these highs, look at that wick, that’s called the wick or the shadow. I like to call it the wick because candles have wicks. So you’ll see that the real body, the value is right there. That’s where, on this day, it opened and closed within that very narrow range, tested these prices up here and rejected them so that is a bearish pattern because we get that long wick up there and this again, this whole zone up here, that’s a rejection of those prices and that means that that is at least a short-term bearish pattern.

Forex Trading Tutorial

That’s what makes it put in a high and goes back down to support. Now, when we get paid down to support, again, we’ve got a long wick down there so it rejected that as a push off of the bottom and it goes back up. When we come back up, you’ve got a long wick up there. And then here we’ve got a couple of long wicks and now you will not get this kind of long wicks at every hirgher high. So, for example, well actually we got one in there. I didn’t think I’m pretty good one right there and it may not be right at that very high. Might come in the second bar or so, but there are other types of candlestick patterns, engulfing patterns and things like that. So this is just one example that I’m pointing out and there’ll be others.

You want to study candlesticks in detail, actually, that would be a great idea. Today, we’re just pointing out a couple of things. Now, when we break through this resistance level, notice how the candle just flies through it. There’s no wick up here. We actually closed up. That’s how it breaks through. When it comes back to support, the wick goes below and it comes back to support. The wick goes below, but the close is above. Now, when we break down below that resistance or this time, resistance, this turned into support, now when it finally does break through support, what happens? It closes below the support level and closes down there. The problem is how do we determine when support is going to hold or, whether a support or resistance for that matter, is going to break and the market continues to slice right through.

Rubber Band Trade Strategy

This is one way to do it. Look at your price action bars at those support resistance levels. This is one example. Do encourage you to learn more candlestick patterns in addition to these and it’ll give you more trigger itself. If you liked the video on Forex training, please understand that you have a moral obligation to pay forward the things that are helpful to us because you’re getting this for free. Please click on the share button below and pay it forward. Also, if you’re watching on youtube, go ahead and subscribe, that way you would get notified every time I create a new video, which is about once a week. Please click the thumbs up icon. And leave a comment because that really encourages me to keep creating more free tutorials for you. I love the interaction and finally have a special offer for my youtube subscribers.

Actually, for anybody watching this, I’m going to give you one of my favorite trade strategies. It’s called the rubber band trade. It’s a great trade. I still trade it myself to this day because it has a really high win-loss ratio. And it’s a simple trade, one of the simplest trades I know. I can teach it to you in 26 short minutes, which I’m going to do. You can get it absolutely free by clicking on the image in the top right corner of this video or in the description below the video. There’s also a link. And if you’re not watching on Youtube or you’re watching somewhere else, there’s probably a link below or an opt-in form on the side. Once you to do that, I’ll personally email the video to you with the rubber band trade strategy.

GET MY FREE MARKET ENTRY TIMING INDICATOR

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

What did you think of this tutorial on Forex Training? Enter your answer in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page.

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FREE GIFT!

Also, I’m giving away one of my favorite Forex Training strategies that works in trading the markets. Just fill out the yellow form at the top of the sidebar on the right. Once you do that, I’ll personally send you an email with the first video.

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Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1 Video

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Stock Market Cycles
Stock market cycles analysis, predicting stock market using cycle analysis, stock market cycles forecast

Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1 video: This video (and article) will give you key insights on timing the market cycles right using various strategies, founded on solid economic fundamentals. This would elevate your trading performance to new heights.

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Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1

Today we’re going to talk about stock market cycles, FOREX cycles, anything that has to do with trading cycles, cycle indicators in the financial markets, and this is really important. This is going to give you a huge edge because what’s interesting is as I was doing some google searches in Youtube searches to see what else was out there on this topic. First of all, I found out that there are not many people doing searches for this. So then I thought, well maybe I shouldn’t do a video on it if people aren’t searching for. And then I thought, no, just the opposite. I definitely need to do a video on this because if there are very few people using this and I share it with my subscribers, then I can give you an edge because that’s kind of what an edge is.

Seeing things that other people don’t see, they’re not even looking for. And this is so important. So we’re focusing on stock market cycles today and what I mean by that is your timing in the market. Now, that appears in many different ways, but, first of all, again, just to emphasize the importance of this and how absolutely ridiculously critical this is. So think of it this way, a chart has two dimensions. It’s a two-dimensional object. There’s your price access and there’s your time access. Alright, so think of that. Now, if you are not using some sort of really great timing tool, what are you doing?

Stock market cycle analysis

You’re missing out on 50 percent of the information on the chart. Yes, trading is all about establishing probability scenarios that favor us, right? How can you establish a statistical probability scenario? If you’re ignoring 50 percent of the information on the chart, I think you know the answer to that. You are doomed. That alone means that you will be a failed trader. Now, how this manifests itself in a lot of people’s actual trading experience as they’ll say things like “I keep getting in and then I get stopped out and then after it gets stopped out at the market, goes back in the original direction of my trade and I keep getting stepped on all the time”. One of my friends who is a floor trader actually was one of my mentors for quite a while in Chicago and he said, Barry, you know what?

Retailers are often right, but at the wrong time, and that’s what he meant in the experience that some of you are having; timing at the wrong time. Time is everything. And especially in today’s markets. You can’t be as sloppy as you could back in the olden days when I started trading. No, with high-frequency trading, Algo trading, the advent of decimalization, lowering of commissions, the commoditization of direct access, all this kind of stuff means that markets don’t trend as much as they used to. They’re choppier, they’re noisier, so you have to be more accurate, and the way you do that is by learning how to time your entries. Now, as I just showed you, there are two dimensions on the chart, but WD Gann, the famous trader, he said they’re not even equal.

Stock market cycle theory

Of the two, time is actually more important than price and that very few people even use this in their trading in any way, shape or form. So, I’m going to do a little series here on how to do this with various types of stock market cycles. When you’re talking about cycles in the market, that’s what we’re talking about is timing. So today, I’m going to give you a quick overview and then we’ll do some specific videos in the future. Actually, you know what, we’ll do a little bit on that first one.

So there’s seasonal or calendar cycles and then there are volatility cycles, we’ll do that in a future video. We’ll cover the first one today and then order/chaos cycles. Now, that one, that’s the one that I have never heard anybody else talk about except me, although I’m sure if somebody has. Coupling and uncoupling cycles, that’s actually one of the professional traders do a lot. And the uptown cycles, that means timing your entries with the highs and the lows, the swing high swing lows. I actually have a great indicator for it by the way which I give away for free, so that one is where you get very precise into exactly where you enter to help you to prevent being stopped out, whether it’s long or short.

Stock market cycles forecast

If you’re interested in the indicator, I’m happy to share with you along with this tutorial. Just send me an email at barry@topdogtrading.com. I won’t be covering that in this video because it takes longer than our 10 minutes allotted for these youtube videos, but happy to share it with you for free. Today, what I want to focus on is this one, the seasonal or calendar cycles. What we’re talking about here is the time of year basically, and this is most famously used with the agricultural markets where they say you farm and you sow your seed in the spring. The crops grow over the summer and then you reap your harvest in the fall. So, if you’re going to trade soft commodities such as corn or wheat, then it would make sense to go ahead and buy those commodities in the spring.

And then when they sell the commodity in the fall, then you know the 20 sale price goes up and you’re olden, right? It’s not quite that easy. We’ll talk about that in a moment. But that is a cycle, the agricultural cycle. And then another one is the retail sector. So as I’m recording this, we’re just about a week before Christmas. Actually, it’s exactly a week before Christmas now, but I look at the calendar and this is a time when retail markets do well, right? There are some businesses, in fact, that make all their money during the holidays in December or they pushed it even into November now to keep extending it. But the bottom line is these couple of months is the time when some businesses actually make all their profits and others to make the majority of their profits.

Stock cycles forecast

So people who are watching the retail stocks and sectors, things like that, they are watching this time of year. A third one is travel. So again, timing is very important for that. Most people do. They’re traveling during the summer or during spring break or during certain holidays. Again, maybe during Christmas, Kwanzaa, Hanukkah time when people are available to go visit family and friends. And so if you’re going to invest in airlines or hotels, things like that, then this would be a time that you’d be looking at those types of markets and you could do some swing trades around that timing. Now, here’s the problem. So you get the idea and there are many other cycles that are associated with the calendar year. But here’s the problem. They’re not always consistent, so you can’t just trade a calendar, you have to learn to read the charts.

And the reason for that is, let’s take the agricultural sector. Let’s say that a farmer, he sows in the spring and then a disaster happens. When I lived in Florida, we’d see this a lot with orange juice. The weather would drop and the oranges would die. And that really had a major dramatic effect on the orange juice commodity market. So prices would go up because why? There wasn’t the same kind of supply that they had expected, and now if you wanted an orange juice, you’re going to have to pay a lot more for it. The price went up. So that’s good, right? No, because some farmers lost all their crops and made no money.

Predicting stock market using cycle analysis

They invested all that money into farming, into the machinery, into raising the crops of whatever it was, wheat, corn. And now they got nothing back. So they are deeply in debt. So, speculators came along and said, hey, tell you what we’ll do, we’ll give you kind of an insurance policy, we’ll buy your crops in the spring before they’re even grown, let alone harvested and we will give you a price now, but we want a discount. But, basically, you’re guaranteed this price. And so they’re betting on the future and they’re mitigating the risk for the farmer. So the farmer gives up a percentage of what they would normally make, but they’ve got insurance, any type of insurance, so to say. So a lot of farmers said, cool, that’s fantastic. I would rather have the guaranteed price.

I can’t weather, pun fully intended, by the way, the risk of a horrible weather even if it just happens to me once every five years and once in ten years, it is so devastating that I’d rather smooth out my equity curve. That’s the thing, agricultural markets, you can’t read the calendar because what will happen? The retail sector is actually a better one because weather events are very difficult, in fact, impossible to predict. Now, in the retail sector, we can start watching for some leading indicators because it’s more driven by the economy. How are people doing, are they making lots of money and that sort of thing. So if people are feeling that they’re prosperous this year, they’re going to spend more money on presents. And if they’re not, then they’re not.

Wrapping up!

So people can start looking at these economic indicators ahead of time and that again is the deal. So with traders, speculators, we were trading these times of year but we’re not waiting to buy in the spring. Traders often trade the retail market starting in like August because by the time everything’s known, the deal is done, the trade is over. So it’s like the saying “buy the rumor and sell the news”. You’ve got confirmation, but there’s no opportunity for a trade. Therefore, you’ve got to be able to read a calendar and use that for some timing and you do what Dow theory calls discounting the market, which basically means to trade in advance before all the information is known and that’s why it’s called speculation.

Just say, but isn’t that risky? Yes, that’s why we call it speculation. The last thing I want to say is that using these types of cycles affect any type of cycles, is just one energy in the market. Money going in, money going out, the buying, the selling, the supply, the demand. So you don’t trade cycles alone, not even the calendar in a chart. You still need other things. But this is one extra thing that you can add to your trading in professionals. Definitely, do this. So if you liked this video on stock market cycles, please understand that it’s free, but not spiritually. Kind of a weird thing to say, but what I mean by that is that if you did get value from it, please pay it forward, just pay it forward.

Our favorite rubber band trade strategy

And the best way to do that is to click the share button. Hey, we’re over 20 over 30,000 subscribers and it just boggles my mind. Well maybe not quite that, but I’d love to have you as a subscriber. Click the subscribe button. Every time I come out with a new video, you’ll notifications. Click the thumbs up icon, leave comments below. I love your comments. Anything you want to add, if you disagree with me, if you agree with me, if you have something to add to the community and the topic, it’s all great and then the big special offer I have right now for you is I’m giving away one of my favorite trade strategies.

I call it the rubber band trade. I get people emailing me all the time telling me that they’re making money with this. And I want to give you value ahead of time and real value, not just general teaching but also stuff you can make money with and that’s what this rubber band trade is. It’s a simple trade and I can teach it to you in about 26 minutes. Get it absolutely free by clicking on the image in the top right corner of the video or in the description below the video. And if you’re not watching this on youtube, there’s probably a link below or an opt-in form on the side. Once you do one of those things, I will personally email the video to you with the rubber band trade strategy.

GET MY FREE MARKET ENTRY TIMING INDICATOR

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

What did you think of this tutorial on Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1? Enter your answer in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page.

PLEASE PAY IT FORWARD BY SHARING THIS VIDEO & ARTICLE ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER by clicking one of the social media share buttons.

FREE GIFT!

Also, I’m giving away one of my favorite Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1 trade strategies that work in trading the markets. Just fill out the yellow form at the top of the sidebar on the right. Once you do that, I’ll personally send you an email with the first video.

Those interested in Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1 video that works in today’s markets also showed an interest in this video:
https://www.topdogtrading.com/stock-market-cycles-how-to-time-your-entries-with-precision/

Subscribe to my YouTube Channel for notifications when my newest free videos are released by clicking here:
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