Home Blog

Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1 Video

0
Stock Market Cycles
Stock market cycles analysis, predicting stock market using cycle analysis, stock market cycles forecast

Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1 video: This video (and article) will give you key insights on timing the market cycles right using various strategies, founded on solid economic fundamentals. This would elevate your trading performance to new heights.

Was this video on Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1 helpful to you? Leave a message in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page. 

PLEASE “PAY IT FORWARD” BY SHARING THIS VIDEO & ARTICLE ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER by clicking one of the social media share buttons.


Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1

Today we’re going to talk about stock market cycles, FOREX cycles, anything that has to do with trading cycles, cycle indicators in the financial markets, and this is really important. This is going to give you a huge edge because what’s interesting is as I was doing some google searches in Youtube searches to see what else was out there on this topic. First of all, I found out that there are not many people doing searches for this. So then I thought, well maybe I shouldn’t do a video on it if people aren’t searching for. And then I thought, no, just the opposite. I definitely need to do a video on this because if there are very few people using this and I share it with my subscribers, then I can give you an edge because that’s kind of what an edge is.

Seeing things that other people don’t see, they’re not even looking for. And this is so important. So we’re focusing on stock market cycles today and what I mean by that is your timing in the market. Now, that appears in many different ways, but, first of all, again, just to emphasize the importance of this and how absolutely ridiculously critical this is. So think of it this way, a chart has two dimensions. It’s a two-dimensional object. There’s your price access and there’s your time access. Alright, so think of that. Now, if you are not using some sort of really great timing tool, what are you doing?

Stock market cycle analysis

You’re missing out on 50 percent of the information on the chart. Yes, trading is all about establishing probability scenarios that favor us, right? How can you establish a statistical probability scenario? If you’re ignoring 50 percent of the information on the chart, I think you know the answer to that. You are doomed. That alone means that you will be a failed trader. Now, how this manifests itself in a lot of people’s actual trading experience as they’ll say things like “I keep getting in and then I get stopped out and then after it gets stopped out at the market, goes back in the original direction of my trade and I keep getting stepped on all the time”. One of my friends who is a floor trader actually was one of my mentors for quite a while in Chicago and he said, Barry, you know what?

Retailers are often right, but at the wrong time, and that’s what he meant in the experience that some of you are having; timing at the wrong time. Time is everything. And especially in today’s markets. You can’t be as sloppy as you could back in the olden days when I started trading. No, with high-frequency trading, Algo trading, the advent of decimalization, lowering of commissions, the commoditization of direct access, all this kind of stuff means that markets don’t trend as much as they used to. They’re choppier, they’re noisier, so you have to be more accurate, and the way you do that is by learning how to time your entries. Now, as I just showed you, there are two dimensions on the chart, but WD Gann, the famous trader, he said they’re not even equal.

Stock market cycle theory

Of the two, time is actually more important than price and that very few people even use this in their trading in any way, shape or form. So, I’m going to do a little series here on how to do this with various types of stock market cycles. When you’re talking about cycles in the market, that’s what we’re talking about is timing. So today, I’m going to give you a quick overview and then we’ll do some specific videos in the future. Actually, you know what, we’ll do a little bit on that first one.

So there’s seasonal or calendar cycles and then there are volatility cycles, we’ll do that in a future video. We’ll cover the first one today and then order/chaos cycles. Now, that one, that’s the one that I have never heard anybody else talk about except me, although I’m sure if somebody has. Coupling and uncoupling cycles, that’s actually one of the professional traders do a lot. And the uptown cycles, that means timing your entries with the highs and the lows, the swing high swing lows. I actually have a great indicator for it by the way which I give away for free, so that one is where you get very precise into exactly where you enter to help you to prevent being stopped out, whether it’s long or short.

Stock market cycles forecast

If you’re interested in the indicator, I’m happy to share with you along with this tutorial. Just send me an email at barry@topdogtrading.com. I won’t be covering that in this video because it takes longer than our 10 minutes allotted for these youtube videos, but happy to share it with you for free. Today, what I want to focus on is this one, the seasonal or calendar cycles. What we’re talking about here is the time of year basically, and this is most famously used with the agricultural markets where they say you farm and you sow your seed in the spring. The crops grow over the summer and then you reap your harvest in the fall. So, if you’re going to trade soft commodities such as corn or wheat, then it would make sense to go ahead and buy those commodities in the spring.

And then when they sell the commodity in the fall, then you know the 20 sale price goes up and you’re olden, right? It’s not quite that easy. We’ll talk about that in a moment. But that is a cycle, the agricultural cycle. And then another one is the retail sector. So as I’m recording this, we’re just about a week before Christmas. Actually, it’s exactly a week before Christmas now, but I look at the calendar and this is a time when retail markets do well, right? There are some businesses, in fact, that make all their money during the holidays in December or they pushed it even into November now to keep extending it. But the bottom line is these couple of months is the time when some businesses actually make all their profits and others to make the majority of their profits.

Stock cycles forecast

So people who are watching the retail stocks and sectors, things like that, they are watching this time of year. A third one is travel. So again, timing is very important for that. Most people do. They’re traveling during the summer or during spring break or during certain holidays. Again, maybe during Christmas, Kwanzaa, Hanukkah time when people are available to go visit family and friends. And so if you’re going to invest in airlines or hotels, things like that, then this would be a time that you’d be looking at those types of markets and you could do some swing trades around that timing. Now, here’s the problem. So you get the idea and there are many other cycles that are associated with the calendar year. But here’s the problem. They’re not always consistent, so you can’t just trade a calendar, you have to learn to read the charts.

And the reason for that is, let’s take the agricultural sector. Let’s say that a farmer, he sows in the spring and then a disaster happens. When I lived in Florida, we’d see this a lot with orange juice. The weather would drop and the oranges would die. And that really had a major dramatic effect on the orange juice commodity market. So prices would go up because why? There wasn’t the same kind of supply that they had expected, and now if you wanted an orange juice, you’re going to have to pay a lot more for it. The price went up. So that’s good, right? No, because some farmers lost all their crops and made no money.

Predicting stock market using cycle analysis

They invested all that money into farming, into the machinery, into raising the crops of whatever it was, wheat, corn. And now they got nothing back. So they are deeply in debt. So, speculators came along and said, hey, tell you what we’ll do, we’ll give you kind of an insurance policy, we’ll buy your crops in the spring before they’re even grown, let alone harvested and we will give you a price now, but we want a discount. But, basically, you’re guaranteed this price. And so they’re betting on the future and they’re mitigating the risk for the farmer. So the farmer gives up a percentage of what they would normally make, but they’ve got insurance, any type of insurance, so to say. So a lot of farmers said, cool, that’s fantastic. I would rather have the guaranteed price.

I can’t weather, pun fully intended, by the way, the risk of a horrible weather even if it just happens to me once every five years and once in ten years, it is so devastating that I’d rather smooth out my equity curve. That’s the thing, agricultural markets, you can’t read the calendar because what will happen? The retail sector is actually a better one because weather events are very difficult, in fact, impossible to predict. Now, in the retail sector, we can start watching for some leading indicators because it’s more driven by the economy. How are people doing, are they making lots of money and that sort of thing. So if people are feeling that they’re prosperous this year, they’re going to spend more money on presents. And if they’re not, then they’re not.

Wrapping up!

So people can start looking at these economic indicators ahead of time and that again is the deal. So with traders, speculators, we were trading these times of year but we’re not waiting to buy in the spring. Traders often trade the retail market starting in like August because by the time everything’s known, the deal is done, the trade is over. So it’s like the saying “buy the rumor and sell the news”. You’ve got confirmation, but there’s no opportunity for a trade. Therefore, you’ve got to be able to read a calendar and use that for some timing and you do what Dow theory calls discounting the market, which basically means to trade in advance before all the information is known and that’s why it’s called speculation.

Just say, but isn’t that risky? Yes, that’s why we call it speculation. The last thing I want to say is that using these types of cycles affect any type of cycles, is just one energy in the market. Money going in, money going out, the buying, the selling, the supply, the demand. So you don’t trade cycles alone, not even the calendar in a chart. You still need other things. But this is one extra thing that you can add to your trading in professionals. Definitely, do this. So if you liked this video on stock market cycles, please understand that it’s free, but not spiritually. Kind of a weird thing to say, but what I mean by that is that if you did get value from it, please pay it forward, just pay it forward.

Our favorite rubber band trade strategy

And the best way to do that is to click the share button. Hey, we’re over 20 over 30,000 subscribers and it just boggles my mind. Well maybe not quite that, but I’d love to have you as a subscriber. Click the subscribe button. Every time I come out with a new video, you’ll notifications. Click the thumbs up icon, leave comments below. I love your comments. Anything you want to add, if you disagree with me, if you agree with me, if you have something to add to the community and the topic, it’s all great and then the big special offer I have right now for you is I’m giving away one of my favorite trade strategies.

I call it the rubber band trade. I get people emailing me all the time telling me that they’re making money with this. And I want to give you value ahead of time and real value, not just general teaching but also stuff you can make money with and that’s what this rubber band trade is. It’s a simple trade and I can teach it to you in about 26 minutes. Get it absolutely free by clicking on the image in the top right corner of the video or in the description below the video. And if you’re not watching this on youtube, there’s probably a link below or an opt-in form on the side. Once you do one of those things, I will personally email the video to you with the rubber band trade strategy.

GET MY FREE MARKET ENTRY TIMING INDICATOR

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

What did you think of this tutorial on Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1? Enter your answer in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page.

PLEASE PAY IT FORWARD BY SHARING THIS VIDEO & ARTICLE ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER by clicking one of the social media share buttons.

FREE GIFT!

Also, I’m giving away one of my favorite Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1 trade strategies that work in trading the markets. Just fill out the yellow form at the top of the sidebar on the right. Once you do that, I’ll personally send you an email with the first video.

Those interested in Trading Stock Market Cycles Part 1 video that works in today’s markets also showed an interest in this video:
https://www.topdogtrading.com/stock-market-cycles-how-to-time-your-entries-with-precision/

Subscribe to my YouTube Channel for notifications when my newest free videos are released by clicking here:
https://www.youtube.com/user/TopDogTrading?sub_confirmation=1

Best Trading Indicators for Day Trading and Swing Trading: Free Video

0
Best Trading Indicators
Best Trading Indicators for Day Trading and Swing Trading that works in today's market

Best Trading Indicators for Day Trading and Swing Trading: This video (and article) on the best trading indicators will teach you how to use a rather old-fashioned strategy in trading which still works in today’s market. This strategy will surely give an edge in trading against many others.

Was this video on Best Trading Indicators for Day Trading and Swing Trading helpful to you? Leave a message in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page. 

PLEASE “PAY IT FORWARD” BY SHARING THIS VIDEO & ARTICLE ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER by clicking one of the social media share buttons.


Best Trading Indicators for Day Trading and Swing Trading

Barry Burns here with Top Dog Trading on the Best Trading Indicators for Day Trading and Swing Trading. Today, we’re talking about one of the best trading indicators strategy on any platform, any software. It’s actually a drawing tool and it’s an old one, definitely nothing new, but sometimes the old stuff is good and I tell you what, I don’t find a lot of people still using this. Sometimes, people are always looking for an edge with new stuff and that’s cool. But you know what, sometimes you can find an edge by bringing back something old that people aren’t using anymore. That’s definitely the case here. I use this all the time and I absolutely love it. So it’s the good old-fashioned Andrew’s pitchfork, and I am going to show you a couple of ways of tactically how to use this. First of all, you want to see that you have a change of direction.

So we have had a move up. Now, we’re looking for a move down and I find that this is especially good for an exit. We’ll focus on exits today rather than entries and that’s one of the big problems that I see people having. They write to me and they say, Barry, I don’t know where to get out of the market, where do I exit? And I will tell you that I agree – entries, I have no problem with entries. But exits are much more challenging than entries. In fact, even as I’ve talked to other traders and so forth who have been trading for decades, interviewed them and they have told me rather consistently saying, even though I’ve made all this money in trading, I’ll tell you, the one thing that I felt I never mastered is when to get out of the market.

Best Technical Indicators for Intraday Trading

And I don’t honestly think that anyone knows the perfect time to get out. But what we’re looking for is a good time to get out when we can have a high probability exit where we’ve made some good money and say this is a good time to get out. Not that we’re going to ever catch the entire move of every single impulse where every single trend, that would be unrealistic so certainly not expecting that. But what we do want is a good risk-reward ratio and we want a reasonable, logical and high probability time to exit. First of all, let me show you how to draw this. You’ll see that I just did it right there. It’s a three-point drawing tool. We’re going to take a high, remember looking for a reversal here, so go to a high to a low to another high.

So that’s the basic thing is that against the three-point drawing tool. You start there and then to there and then a lower high. So looking for that shift in a trend. Okay? Now you’ll see that it draws tines, these are called tines because well that’s just the term for the little things that come off of a fork. And this is called Andrew’s pitchfork. That’s what they call this. So we’ve got our middle Tine here. This is just the central line, you want to consider it that. Then we’ve got this main section here, I’m actually going to do it both ways, just so it can kind of see that. And you’ll see that I have these two colored very differently. So the middle one I make black and then the two outside of that I make thicker and darker blue.

Best Technical Indicators for Stock Trading

And then the ones outside of that, a little lighter blue and the wind outside of that a lot lighter blue. And that’s just for visual identification. You know what I should do too is actually show you my settings here because I know I’ll get questions on that, which I don’t blame you. I would expect that. So here are my settings for it and now you’re setting may be a little different; different charting platforms, they seem to use little different things for the parameters and so forth. But anyway, here you could see the handle. All right? So the handle is that part where the fork, you would actually pick up the fork so to say. Alright. And then we’ve got tine one tine two. And so there, you’ll see those are the darker blue lines that I’ve got and I made them with the four.

That’s just for customization, but the percentages, the colors, the width, all that, that’s just however you want to do it based on your personal preference. But what is important here are the percentages. So, tine one is 100 percent, tine to zero percent. Now, I have found that different charting platforms will prescribe different percentages there, but this is for Ninja trader seven. So these are going to be equidistant from the handle from the middle line. And then from there, I use 50 percent differences. So we’ve got our 100 percent and then we’ve got our 150, we had zero percent, then we got minus 50, and then after 150, we’ve got 200 and after a negative 50 percent, negative 100. So those are the settings that I use here. Now, let’s talk about the tactics on how to trade this for exits.

Best Indicator for Swing Trading

So the primary thing that I’m watching; so the tines that are the most important in order to stay within a, let’s say a strong and downtrend, is these two here. That’ll be your 0 and 100. Now, what we’re going to look at here is basically we’re looking at an energy of this first move, from down to up and then back down and we’re saying alright, so this first lower-high and the low between it established a pattern, almost a geometric pattern if you will. And as long as price action stays between these two times or these two lines, we are continuing that same type of energy. So one of the things that we will look at is, for example, when it gets down to here, it’s still within that zone. When it gets out of here, now we’re breaking outside of that same energy.

In other words, the market is not going down with as much enthusiasm as it started. So it’s starting that that downward energy, that trend down is starting to dissipate, if you will. Now, it doesn’t mean it’s gonna go up right away. Sometimes it does, but this is a little more typical of what happens. So it comes back down, hits that tine, comes back up, comes back down, hits that time, it comes back up, kind of rides this one down. And let’s see what happens from here. Now, when it breaks out of the final one, the final line or tine, then I consider, this downtrend completely done this pitch fork over. Not going to look at that pitchfork anymore. I could just take it off of the chart if I wanted to. That would be one place to exit.

Best Trading Indicators for Swing Trading

Another place to exit is a little more aggressive. You get a little more reward on it is when you wait for it to break out outside of this major tine here. And then look for it to come back and see how low it can go. It may not come all the way down here. You could look for things like a double bottom, etc. But just look for it to come back down here and then take a profit down here. So those are two options for you. There’s never one thing that’s always the best, unfortunately, but this is your primary signal right there. The signal that the energy has changed no longer is dramatic to the downside. Now, having done that, let’s just move our chart forward a little bit and let me show you how we can then measure this thing to the upside.

So now that we’ve broken out, we’re okay. Let’s say we went long. Now we bring up our Andrew’s pitchfork again and now we’ve got that low, that high, and this low here. Alright, so now that we’ve got that, we’ve got the same kind of thing going on again and I’ll actually, now that you see why we drew that. So we drew it. Why? Because we look for it after we put in another high and then another low after we’ve broken out of that tine there, right? The two major ones. Okay. Now, let’s see, so it’s not so cluttered. Let’s actually go back and take this one off. Just create more clarity for you. So what we are, here’s another way to exit. And again, there are different techniques because the market doesn’t always do the same thing every time.

Best Trading Indicators to Use

So it comes in here, holds that one, gets a little below it, comes back up to the middle and holds this one. By the way, notice that it also kind of provides diagonal support resistance. Now, here is the point of the second type of exit. Once it gets above the upper major tine, I call these my two primary tines. So this is then a very aggressive move to the upside for it to break above; see, last time we were looking forward to break below the tine to get out. Now, we’re saying, it’s going in the direction of the trend and it broke out above the major wind at the top. So I consider that to be often an exhaustion move. It’s almost like when you see a reversal candlestick pattern that coincides with a high volume bar and you say that’s an exhaustion pattern.

Well, this will be the same type of concept where statistically it’s getting above the norm and when I see this I say that might be a good place to get out. We’ll go and break both the high of that. I don’t know, it’s possible, but statistically, that is a very bullish move. Therefore, I considered it an exhaustion move and whatever the market does in the future, that’s probably going to at least regress or retrace down quite a while and I don’t want to sit through that. I mean we’ve made some good money here. Let’s say you got in whether you got in there or let’s see, you get in here where even if you got in here, you know you made some good money.

Best Trading Indicators for Stocks

You got a great P & L there because this is one way you could do it. As far as entries go, you could say let’s set up our Andrew’s pitchfork and then wait for it to hold the lower level and by there, that would be one thing to do. So my risk is very small, it’s basically that little rectangle there and my reward is that. It actually did make a higher high after that. But look what it also did in the meantime, which is very cool. So this is where, I would get out on an exhaustion move. It comes back down, goes to this tine, goes to that tine, goes to that one and goes to that one, see how it’s providing diagonal support & resistance almost makes it to that line.

Comes down here, right? So that went up. Comes down here. Almost uncanny. Did it make a little higher high after where I got out? Yup, so what? I don’t want to hang in there through this retrace and if it goes up higher, great. Again, we’re not going to catch every single penny and every single move, it’s just impossible. That is a good high probability exit and that’s what I’m looking for. High probability exits, that’s not looking to be right, looking to make some money. And then, well, what happens then when it finally does break down below this final tine, look at that, sure enough, that trend reverses and it goes down. So that is one of my favorite trading indicators, strategies, drawing tools, etc. Test it out for yourself, see how you like it.

Rubber Band Trade Strategy

Now, if you liked this video on the best trading indicators for day trading and swing trading, if you found it interesting, please understand that it’s not free. Wait a minute, it’s not free, I just watched it. Yeah, it is free. But from a spiritual point of view, if you got value from it, then you have an obligation to pay it forward. Share it with other people. That’s what we’re supposed to do as good people, right? And that’s really the very best thing you can do is to click the share button below. If you’re watching this on youtube, feel free to subscribe and click the thumbs up icon. And one of the best things you can do also is leave a comment. I love your comments, even if you disagree with me or maybe have something to add to the conversation to help other traders who are watching this. That’s all great. We invite all.

I have a very special offer to you. I’m giving away one of my favorite trade strategies called the rubber band trade. It is a super high win-loss ratio. In fact, I still take this trade every single time I see it, that’s how good it is. And it’s pretty simple. I’ll teach you two and 26 short minutes. So get my rubber band trade strategy absolutely free by simply clicking on the image in the top right corner of this video or in the description above or below this video. If you’re not watching it on youtube, there’s probably a link below or above or an opt-in form on the side. Once you do one of those things, I’ll personally email the video to you with the rubber band trade strategy.

GET MY FREE MARKET ENTRY TIMING INDICATOR

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

What did you think of this tutorial on Best Trading Indicators for Day Trading and Swing Trading Enter your answer in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page.

PLEASE PAY IT FORWARD BY SHARING THIS VIDEO & ARTICLE ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER by clicking one of the social media share buttons.

FREE GIFT!

Also, I’m giving away one of my favorite trade strategies that work in trading the markets. Just fill out the yellow form at the top of the sidebar on the right. Once you do that, I’ll personally send you an email with the first video.

Those interested in Best Trading Indicators for Day Trading and Swing Trading video that works in today’s markets also showed an interest in this video:
https://www.topdogtrading.com/how-to-choose-stocks-for-swing-trading/

Subscribe to my YouTube Channel for notifications when my newest free videos are released by clicking here:
https://www.youtube.com/user/TopDogTrading?sub_confirmation=1

Closing Price Strategy vs Settlement Price

0
Closing Price Strategy vs Settlement Price
Closing Price Strategy vs Settlement Price, how is the settlement price different from a closing price

Closing price strategy vs settlement price: This video (and article) will give you key insights on how the “settlement price” is often different from a closing price, which will surely help you improve tremendously in your trades.

If you use the closing price, instead of settlement price, it can give you false readings for Fibonacci levels, Floor Trader Pivots and other support/resistance levels.

Amateurs use the “closing” price. Professionals use the “settlement” price. Which do you want to be?

Was this video on Closing Price Strategy vs Settlement Price helpful to you? Leave a message in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page. 

PLEASE “PAY IT FORWARD” BY SHARING THIS VIDEO & ARTICLE ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER by clicking one of the social media share buttons.


Closing price strategy vs settlement price

Welcome to this video on the closing price strategy vs settlement price. This comes into play, very importantly, when you’re using any type of indicators or techniques that have to do with calculating the closing price of bars, whether it’s indicators or intraday. For example, if you’re using floor trader pivots, this would be one of the biggest places where this could dramatically affect, potentially, where your floor trade pivots end up. And so if you’re finding that you’re drawing floor trading pivots based off the open high-low close, running it through the formula and the levels are not working for you, don’t dismiss them. It might be that you’re using the wrong price for the close and it could be dramatically off. So let me show you an example of that right now. Here we’ve got to the Nasdaq futures. This was Nasdaq 100 futures.

This was Friday, the 17th of November. And if we come here, first of all, if we go to the New York close, these times down below our California Times. So 13:00 is 1:00 California time, which is of course 4:00 New York time, so that’s the new year closed, but we don’t use that for futures. If you’re trading stocks, you would, but for futures, we go to 15 minutes after the hour and there we go. So you notice if down at the bottom where it shows the time and that’s 13:15. If I go to the next bar, market closes and opens back up again 15 minutes later. So 13:31 is when that bar closes.

How is the “settlement price” different from a closing price?

These are just one-minute bars, we did that to get a very precise timing on each one of these. In fact, if you go to the cmegroup.com website and you go to the data section, you can pull up the settlement prices and it will give you the open high-low close and settlement for every market, every contract.

Well, they’ve got the last price listed as 6308.75. They’ve got settlement listed as 6313.25 and. by the way, the last price traded in the close in the settlement can be three different things; that’s where it gets a little confusing for people sometimes. Is the last price traded at the close? The answer is no. And the reason for that, part of the reason I believe, is because if they use the last price traded, somebody could throw in a last trade at a weird price and really threw off the stats of everything, so it’s a good thing they don’t do that.

Settlement is the official number you really want, so when you go to the exchange, and this is the best way to get the settlement number is whatever exchange you’re trading on, go to your exchange website, check out to the market that you’re trading and look at their official settlement number, again, the term is settlement. And that’s the number that I would use for my floor trader pivots when typing in the close.

Settlement price example

So the settlement for this day was 6313.25. Now, the last price is listed on the cme group website at 6309.75, and that’s because they go over here. And if you look at it, the close of that bar is at 6309.5. Well that’s a big difference, right? That’s three and a half point difference. So three and a half points is going to make a big difference when you plug that in as to how your floor trader pivots plot. So make sure you use the right number. In other words, if you’re using the number on your charts, here’s what a lot of people do. They will just go to their chart and they would use either that number or they would use the number 6312.75.

So it can’t depend on your charts, this is the bottom line point, do not depend on your charts for the close of the day. You’ve got to wait. By the way, there is a whole a procedure for how they determine this settlement. Basically, several tiers in the way that they will do it, depending on what happens, that might be based on volume weighted average price of the last 30 seconds of trading or the midpoint of the low bid and the high ask or there’s a couple of different ways that they will do it in different months, different contract months to have different rules. So not no reason to go through all of that. Bottom line is just getting the right number, the way to get the right number is to go to the exchange.

Daily settlement example

Now, let’s look at a daily chart. So if your trading off of a daily chart, then of course, again, whatever the close is on the daily chart that’s plotted or printed on your daily chart, that’s going to affect your indicators. And the indicators that you use to the calculation of the close of the bar, especially. We’re not talking about affecting the floor trader pivots, we’re talking about really any indicators that you use that use the close. Now, what you want do is you want to go to, here’s this day, the 17th, activate the right bar. All right, there it is, the same day that we’re talking about. And you’ll notice that on mine, now I’m using kinetic data, and they do have the close as 6313.25, which is the same as what is printed at the cmegroup.com for the settlement that day.

So that’s good. That’s what you want. I would encourage you to check that out. See if your data provider, whoever it is giving you that number as the close on your daily charts. If it is, you’re golden, and if it’s not well, things are going to be a little different. This is why sometimes people say how come my indicators look a little different than yours even though I’ve got the same settings and all of that. It’s not the indicator that is messing you up, it is just simply that perhaps the data is just a little bit different since the indicators you’re using that data to plot its patterns, it’ll show up a little different too. Double check on that.

Wrapping things up on our closing price strategy vs settlement price

Good thing to check. You can ask your data provider and, by the way, your data provider may or may not be the same company that provides your charting software where may or may not be the same company that is your brokerage firm.

So you got to go to the data provider. This is a data issue, not necessarily a brokerage issue or charting software issue. So that’s it, might seem like a little thing and a lot of times it is, frankly. A lot of times the difference between the close or the last price traded or settlement is not very much. I think on this day and the S & P, it was about two ticks off. So that wasn’t too much. And there are days when it would be very close. Then there are other days, like this day, three and a half point difference. Now, that’s pretty significant and that will make a difference.

Our Favorite Rubber Band Trade Strategy

So if you found this video on closing price strategy vs settlement price helpful, if you learn something new, then great. You’ve got a moral obligation to pay it forward. Go ahead and click the share button below. That’s really the best thing you can do to help other people get access to this same information. This also encourages me to continue to create these free tutorials for you.

If you’re watching on Youtube, please subscribe. Click that beautiful thumbs up icon and I especially love your comments. Those also encouraged me to continue to create new lessons.

By the way, I’ve got a really special offer to my youtube subscribers, meaning, you. I’m giving you one of my favorite trade strategies called the rubber band trade. It has a very high win-loss ratio. And I’m going to teach you the whole trade. All the rules, right? It’s a simple trade, so I can do it in about 26 short minutes. You can get it absolutely free by clicking on the image in the top right corner of this video or in the description below the video. And if you’re not watching on youtube, there’s probably a link below or an opt-in form on the side. Once you do that, I will personally email the video to you with the rubber band trade strategy.

GET MY FREE MARKET ENTRY TIMING INDICATOR

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

What did you think of this tutorial on Closing Price Strategy vs Settlement Price? Enter your answer in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page.

PLEASE PAY IT FORWARD BY SHARING THIS VIDEO & ARTICLE ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER by clicking one of the social media share buttons.

FREE GIFT!

Also, I’m giving away one of my favorite trade strategies that work in trading the markets. Just fill out the yellow form at the top of the sidebar on the right. Once you do that, I’ll personally send you an email with the first video.

Those interested in Closing Price Strategy vs Settlement Price video that works in today’s markets also showed an interest in this video:
https://www.topdogtrading.com/support-and-resistance-trading-strategy/

Subscribe to my YouTube Channel for notifications when my newest free videos are released by clicking here:
https://www.youtube.com/user/TopDogTrading?sub_confirmation=1

Risk Management Trading Forex, Stock Market and Futures

0
Risk Management Trading
Risk Management Trading Forex, Stock Market and Futures best tips

Risk Management Trading Forex, Stock Market and Futures: This video (and article) gives you insights into risk management and money management in trading, which will definitely help you tremendously in your trades.

This is some of the best risk management trading advice that works very well if you’re trading Forex, the stock market, and futures.

Was this video on Risk Management Trading Forex, Stock Market and Futures helpful to you? Leave a message in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page. 

PLEASE “PAY IT FORWARD” BY SHARING THIS VIDEO & ARTICLE ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER by clicking one of the social media share buttons.


Risk Management Trading

Welcome to this video on risk management trading for FOREX, the stock market, futures day trading, swing trading. Really, trading is a lot about risk management. Professional traders care more about money management and risk management trading than we do about indicators, candlestick patterns, support resistance, all that stuff that most people are looking at. What time interval should it be trading, which is the best market, all that stuff, sorry, not the most important thing and what is most important is what most new traders completely ignore. New Traders, I find, are obsessed with indicators and the indicators can be helpful. They can be a part of your trading toolbox. No problem there. I’ve got a great indicator, by the way, that helps you to time your entries and exits with amazing precision when used as part of an overall trading plan.

And part of that trading plan must be, in fact not only a part but at the center, I would say, must be your money management and your risk management trading. So let me give you three examples of what I’m talking about and some of you are going to leave this tutorial being a little discouraged. You might even think you know what? Trading is even a lot harder than I thought.. I thought it was already hard and now I think it’s harder and if that’s what you think, good, I’ve done my job because it is harder than you even think it is. So here’s principle number one. So let’s say that you are trading a market. I’m just using round numbers here and I’m going to use some round numbers throughout this just to make the math easy for you just to illustrate certain principles.

Risk Management Trading Tips

So let’s say that you are in a market that’s at $10, whatever that market might be, your long, and it goes down to $5. So what have you lost? What percentage of your position have you lost? We’ve lost 50 percent of your possession, right? If you were in a $10, it goes down to five. Now your position is worth $5. You’ve lost 50 percent of your money. So now, how do you get back to even? Well, it just has to go back up to what, $10. Then you’re at breakeven. Here’s the tricky part though. It doesn’t have to go up 50 percent in order for you to get breakeven. Now that it’s down to $5, it actually has to double in price. So to get from here to here, the market actually has to go up 100 percent.

And that’s really what this whole tutorial is about today of how making money is harder than you even think it is, with an emphasis on keeping your losses small and letting your winners run. You’ve heard that slogan, well, I really want to emphasize to you how important it is to keep your losses small because letting your loss moving against you is absolutely devastating. More than you might even realize. So going down, you lose 50 percent. To gain that back, you’ve got to double the position, the price of the stock, FOREX, futures, whatever you’re in. And yes, the market is looking at percentages. The market is not as likely to go up 100 percent as it is to go down 50 percent. In fact, then you add the human dynamic in there that markets tend to go down faster than they go up.

Risk Management Techniques Used in Trading

And many people attribute that to mass psychology. That fear is a stronger emotion than greed. So now, we don’t only have to fight the mathematics of it here, now we’ve also got to fight human nature. And that’s another factor that makes it even harder to get your money back. The second issue I want to share with you today is about unrealized losses. This is where people are in a position and it’s still live. So you’ve got a position and it’s going down in value and you look at your P & L and it ‘s negative, but you haven’t sold the position yet. Therefore, you haven’t cashed in and balanced out your account. Now, a lot of people will say that those unrealized losses are unrealized which, in a sense, is true in the sense that you haven’t sold your position and locked in the losses

But I think that there’s a lot of people out there, in fact, I know that there are who don’t really think it’s a loss until you sell your position and that I totally disagree with. An unrealized loss is a loss right now. It is real and I can’t say it’s realized, but it is real right now. In fact, I even heard this in a podcast just yesterday we’re sadly a host of a financial podcast was saying that even if your position is down, he was talking about currencies, as long as you don’t sell, then you really haven’t lost any money yet. And boy do I disagree with that. Another place that you’ll see this is with options traders and they’ll talk about, we’re going to repair this losing option position and once we add this second leg, then you’re back to break even. Really? No.

Stock Market Risk Management Strategies

I’ve even raised my hand and classes where they’ve talked about these so-called option repair positions and confronted them saying, listen, I’m a future’s day trader and I can tell you when you’re down, you’re down. That money is not available to you. In fact, if you don’t believe me, call your broker. Let’s say that you’ve got a, again, let’s just keep numbers simple here, $10,000 trading account in and is down to a 5,000 of unrealized losses. And you want to buy another $5,000 worth of whatever. The broker is going to say, no, don’t think so. Then you’ll say but I’ve got $10,000 in my account, and he’ll say, no, you’ve got $5,000 and you will say, no, I got 10,000 because I haven’t cashed out. I haven’t taken the losses on this $5,000 loss, and he’s going to say can you say margin call?

So that’s how they look at it in the real world because that is the real world and that is real. Those losses are real right now. Whether you’ve cashed out to position or not, the money is not there available to you. You’ve got to understand that. And this, I think, is a false security that a lot of people have when they let their losses run, instead of keeping their losses really tight and cutting their losses is that they have this mindset that, well, it’s not a real loss as long as I don’t cash out the position. Wrong. Take that red P & L, in this case, the L, very seriously, it is a loss right now in real time and that money is not available to you. And it is a loss.

Money Management Trading

Now let’s finish up with a few other things. And this is, again, how important it is to avoid major losses and to cut your losses short. First of all, remember every time you take a trade, it’s immediately a loser. Every time you take a trade, you are immediately in a losing position. Why? Well, a couple reasons. Number one, the spread between the bid and the ask. Number two, what else we got? Well, that’s a bit in here. We got commissions, right? We’ve got fees, exchange fees, broker fees, and so forth. So every time you enter a trade, you’re in a losing position. Think of it almost like poker. We’ve got to ante up. So to play the game, you’ve got to pay these fees. All right?

So immediately, even though if your P & L on your charting platform doesn’t calculate this in and it looks like I’m up several ticks, but that may not include this. Now, some charity platforms allow you to calculate that in and that’s great. That’s actually how I set mine up because I want to keep myself aware of all that. Now, let’s talk about your winnings. So you win and that’s great. You’ve made some money. Let’s say that you made 100 bucks. Okay? No, you didn’t. Why? Because, well, first of all, you got to pay taxes on that. I’m in the largest tax bracket. And that’s roughly, we’ll again use round numbers, people in different states and countries are watching this.

Money Management Strategies

By the way, I am not a CPA or financial professional or tax professionals. Don’t take any of these numbers literally at all. Make sure you talk to your tax professional as to exactly how this is going to work out. But roughly I pay like 40 percent in federal tax, then good old California where I live, we’ve got our estate taxes. So that’s another what, Ten percent or so? And then maybe you’ve got your self-employment tax. We wouldn’t even put that in there, but if we put that, we’re up to 40 or up to 50, we’re up to 60 percent that’s being taken out then, maybe it got spousal support and maybe you’ve got child support.

And pretty soon, what do you got left? Maybe 20 percent? And now, all of a sudden, you realize that your winners, you thought you made, let’s say $10, but you only made two. And that’s on the winners. Then our good old friend, the government, generally, they are very happy to take a percentage of our winners, but they don’t really want to make much allowance for your losses.

Futures Trading Risk Management

So they will often limit the deductions that you can take on your losses. Again, talk to your tax professional about that. And each situation is different. People are in different tax brackets. How the tax is calculated, which taxes are calculated, all that will vary from person to person, situation to situation with your trade through a business or a personal account, countries, states, etc. So I’ve just got to qualify all of that. But the point is, you can see the big point here, you think you made, again, we’ll use the number $100 now and no, you made 20. Or maybe you made 30 or maybe even made $50 after all of this. Still, what you think was a big winner was only half as big.

So this is why it’s so important to not only cut your losses but let your winners run. Because your winner on your P & L on your charting platform, that isn’t what it is. That is not what you’re putting in your pocket. The reality is it’s going to be a lot less. Find out for yourself with your tax professional what actually will be for you as an individual. Okay, well now that I’ve got you all motivated about trading, but again, you know, at least I’m transparent, at least I’m honest about this. This is the kind of stuff you need to really understand that it makes it even harder to make money. So what you do need is a good risk management trading plan. You need something that’s realistic in the trading world so you can make some real money.

Our Favorite Rubber Band Trade Strategy

So if you liked this video on risk management trading, if you found that it was helpful, if you think others could benefit from this as well, please understand that it’s important to pay it forward and share that little button down there. Click that share button. It’s really the best thing you can do. Also, if you’re watching on youtube and you want some more good stuff, please click the subscribe button. That way you’ll be notified every time I release a new trading tutorial, which is about once a week. Click the thumbs up icon below and leave a comment. I love your comments.

I also have a special offer to you today. This is a trading strategy that actually does have a very high win-loss ratio, which I think you can see how important that is now, and I can teach it to you in about 26 short minutes. This is one of the most simple trade strategies that I have. It’s called the rubber band trade, and I’ll give it to you absolutely free by clicking on the image in the top right corner of this risk management trading video or in the description below the video. And if you’re not watching this video on risk management trading Forex, Stock Market and Futures on Youtube, there’s probably a link below or an opt-in form on the side. Once you do one of those things, I will personally email the video to you with the rubber band trade strategy.

GET MY FREE MARKET ENTRY TIMING INDICATOR

BTW, if you’re interested in the indicator that I use personally for very precise entries and exits. I’m happy to share that with you. Just send me an email at Barry@TopDogTrading.com, and I’ll show you how to get access to that indicator.

What did you think of this tutorial on Risk Management Trading Forex, Stock Market and Futures? Enter your answer in the COMMENTS section at the bottom of this page.

PLEASE PAY IT FORWARD BY SHARING THIS VIDEO & ARTICLE ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER by clicking one of the social media share buttons.

FREE GIFT!

Also, I’m giving away one of my favorite trade strategies that work in trading the markets. Just fill out the yellow form at the top of the sidebar on the right. Once you do that, I’ll personally send you an email with the first video.

Those interested in Risk Management Trading Forex, Stock Market and Futures video that works in today’s markets also showed an interest in this video:
https://www.topdogtrading.com/stock-market-volume-analysis/

Subscribe to my YouTube Channel for notifications when my newest free videos are released by clicking here:
https://www.youtube.com/user/TopDogTrading?sub_confirmation=1